Economy

Scary Charts – 12.04.25

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Through November, employers have announced 1,170,821 job cuts, an increase of 54% from the 761,358 announced in the first eleven months of last year. Year-to-date job cuts are at the highest level since 2020 when 2,227,725 cuts were announced through November. It is the sixth time since 1993 that job cuts through November have surpassed 1.1 million. Challenger Report: 71,321 Job Cuts on Restructurings, Closings, Economy https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-71321-job-cuts-on-restructurings-closings-economy/

Yikes.

In my less than illustrious career I’ve suffered 100% reductions in income multiple times. Hopefully the newly unemployed have some form of a fallback plan.

Stay safe. It’s fugly out there.

Random Thoughts on Retirement (or why I continue to work)

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Congress needs to get serious about tweaking various aspects of Social Security, but this time to improve the financial aspects of the system, and not to make them worse, as it had done in January.Social Security Fiscal Year 2025: Trust Fund Balance, Income, Outgo, Deficit, and Interest Rates https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/18/social-security-fiscal-year-2025-trust-fund-balance-income-outgo-deficit-and-interest-rates/

The Boss (SWMBO) and I talk about this often. Once the W2 income stops and we have to rely upon a small corporate pension, savings, and a shaky Social Security promise we’ll have to get conservative on our spending. No more Stratocasters. Less purchases for wardrobe enhancements. Gas station beer instead of craft brews.

Time will tell.

SWMBO – She Who Must Be Obeyed

Yikes.

Scary Charts 11.15.25 (income matters)

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Cognitive disability was strongly associated with socioeconomic factors such as income and education. Adults with household incomes less than $35,000 consistently reported the highest prevalence, increasing from 8.8% (95% CI 8.5%–9.2%) in 2013 to 12.6% (95% CI 12.0%–13.2%) in 2023. By contrast, adults in the highest income bracket (household income ≥ $75,000) had substantially lower prevalence, with a more modest increase from 1.8% (95% CI 1.6%–2.0%) in 2013 to 3.9% (95% CI 3.6%–4.2%) in 2023. Rising Cognitive Disability as a Public Health Concern Among US Adults – Neurology October 21, 2025 issue 105 (8) e214226 https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0000000000214226

Overall, income is central to the aging experience. From how well they think they’re aging to how they rate their physical and mental health and financial security, older adults with upper incomes are doing better than those with middle or lower incomes. Aging well: How income and health shape the experiences of older Americans – https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2025/11/06/aging-well-how-income-and-health-shape-the-experiences-of-older-americans/

Yikes.

Concerning Trends in Retirement – More Less Than Random Thoughts

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  • Lack of sufficient savings
  • Inflationary pressures
  • Rising credit card debt
  • Half of respondents said they had saved less than what was needed for retirement.
  • When we asked an open-ended question about why they rated their satisfaction with retired life as they did, inflation was a major reason.

The ‘Concerning Trends’ in Retirement Now – https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/concerning-trends-in-retirement-now

I’ve decided not to retire. Wait, let me clarify my statement.

I’ve not changed my mind about my decision not to retire five years ago.

I love double negative sentences.

 Fewer than twenty percent of older people worldwide enjoy a retirement pension that is enough for them to live off. Although countries like China and India are now also developing their pension systems, the prospect of most older people receiving pensions totaling 60 to 70% of their final salaries remains a long way off.

The invention of retirement – https://www.swisslife.com/en/home/blog/interview-matthieu-leimgruber.html

The majority of our friends are retired. I’m always asked when I’m going to retire. My quick answer was always “Don’t know”. I’ve since modified my response to “Two to four years”. This has been my answer for the past two years. Might still be my answer next year too.

https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/the-90-rule-of-retirement-live-long-and-prosper

Nearly 40% of Americans ages 55 and older were employed in 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — a striking shift that’s even more dramatic when you look at the oldest workers. Today, 2.8 million men over 70 are working in the U.S. — part of an extraordinary long-term transformation in which employment among Americans 75 and older has quadrupled since 1964. More Americans are ‘unretiring’: 5 money factors to weigh before joining them – https://www.aol.com/finance/retirement-planning/article/unretiring-is-trending-5-money-factors-you-should-consider-first-153926242.html

I think I’ll retire in two to four years.

Scary Charts – 09.13.25

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Interestingly, older workers (65+) earn around $3,000 more than those in the 25 to 34 bracket, reflecting a group of late-career professionals who continue to command strong wages. Charted: Median U.S. Salaries by Age Group https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-median-u-s-salaries-by-age-group/

Late-career professional. There seem to be a lot more of us now.

Three in four workers (75 percent) plan to work for pay in retirement, compared with just 29 percent of retirees who report they have actually worked for pay in retirement. In fact, the RCS has consistently found that workers are far more likely to plan to work for pay in retirement than retirees are to have actually done so. 2025 Retirement Confidence Survey – https://www.ebri.org/retirement/retirement-confidence-survey

But if you’re working for pay in retirement how can this be considered retirement?

Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/trump-tariffs-grocery-prices-rise-cpi

FYI, the BLS statistics are BS. Real world eyeball prices at the market tell me so.

Like coffee. Coffee prices in the US has surged more than 20% in the last year.

US coffee prices surge as tariffs take effect – https://www.semafor.com/article/09/12/2025/us-coffee-prices-surge-as-tariffs-take-effect

Ooh…not just coffee.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2025 — in one chart – https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/inflation-breakdown-for-august-2025.html

I guess I’ll keep working in “retirement”.

Work Until You Die – Scary Charts 09.07.25

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It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 22.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that. Food prices have are up 25 percent, rents have increased almost 27 percent and transportation prices are up 28 percent. And yet, nominal wages have only grown 21.8 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were almost five years ago. Cost of Living Is the Biggest Challenge Americans Face https://www.statista.com/chart/35054/biggest-challenges-faced-by-americans/

Retirement Savings Survey: 50% of people don’t think it’s realistic for the average American to expect to retire comfortably – https://wallethub.com/blog/retirement-savings-survey/133047

The second survey is small with just over 200 respondents. The methodology statement is vague so it’s hard to tell if the findings are truly representative of a larger population.

Maybe the survey got an overwhelming number of pessimists.

Then again, maybe not.

Yikes.

(Not) Random Thoughts on Retirement and THE SCARY CHART of the Year So Far

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How Bad Could This Get? https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/04/how-bad-could-this-get/. I’ve lived through several stock market crashes. And to think I started the day reading up on the latest U of Michigan healthy aging poll.

National Poll on Healthy Aging home

Working adults age 50 and older commonly reported these reasons for working as being very important:

  • Have financial stability (78%)
  • Save for retirement (65%)
  • Get access to health insurance (59%)
  • Support family members financially (52%)
  • Maximize Social Security benefits (46%)

Link: https://www.healthyagingpoll.org/

How about adding these bullet points to the list:

  • Working past age 50 enables you to weather stock market volatility better
  • Working past age 60 enables you to have financial stability when the stock portion of your retirement portfolio loses value
  • Working past age 70 enables you to say I’m glad to be still working when the stock portion of my retirement portfolio loses value.

Disclaimer: the additional bullet points are fictional and not related to the real poll questions or answers.

Monday should be a very interesting day in the stock market. Stocks appear to be headed towards a fire sale. Time to buy!

OK, I’ll Stop Complaining About the Price of Eggs (more Scary Charts)

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Horror stories of inflation in Argentina

These problems have existed for decades. Rampant government spending and massive government borrowing are two important factors. The government has defaulted on its debt nine times. Argentina’s currency was devalued by 30% in 2015, and then again in 2016. Soon after taking office in December 2023, Milei devalued the peso by more than 50%. https://tipswatch.com/2025/03/23/horror-stories-of-inflation-in-argentina/

Who Holds the Ballooning US Government Debt, even as the Fed and Foreign Holders Unloaded Treasury Securities in Q4? — https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/18/who-holds-the-ballooning-us-government-debt-even-as-the-fed-and-foreign-holders-unloaded-treasury-securities-in-q4/

Maybe one day I’ll add my personal thoughts when I post stuff but for now I’ll let Scary Charts speak for themselves.