Scary Charts – 08.16.26

Drawing on a nationally representative survey of 1,591 U.S. adults ages 22–75, this research uncovers a five-year difference between when current retirees, on average, actually left the workforce (age 57) and when future retirees expect to retire (age 62), with half of those planning to retire anticipating they’ll need to delay even further. Future retirees are shifting away from traditional income sources like Social Security and pensions, planning instead to rely more heavily on personal savings and continued employment. Career interruptions remain a significant but underappreciated threat to retirement security, as half of U.S. adults have left the workforce for more than a year.

The entire study Bridging retirement expectation gaps New evidence and insights can be downloaded here:

https://www.tiaa.org/public/institute/publication/2026/bridging-the-gaps-in-retirement-expectations

Remember my earlier post The Fear Shared By Most (Not Just Another Random Thought on Retirement) describes the greatest fear in retirement is outliving your savings. And Economist Teresa Ghilarducci is of the opinion working longer is not a plan but an illusion.

Yikes.

Data Centers Can (are) Ruining People’s Lives

As construction began, Newsom says he spoke with Amazon and Clark Construction representatives, who knocked on his door and, as they put up the fencing around the construction site, told him that if he ever had issues to come to them as they’d “make it right.”

“Then I started having problems, lots of problems,” he says. Innumerable dump trucks came down the road and sent dust through the air day after day. Flashing blue lights from security cameras poured into his bedroom all night. The roads became covered in mud. And eventually, that mud made its way into Newsom’s well, he claims.

“A lot of people in this county have what’s called a bored well, which is a shallow surface water well. So when they’re moving this amount of dirt and earth, digging and vibrations—all those microvibrations over time will work that sediment into the water stream, into that well, and flow straight into my water,” he explains.

He adds that a hydrologist he brought in agreed that the work was disturbing the water table. But when he tried to get in touch with the Amazon superintendent who promised to help address issues, he was met with silence.

A Virginia Homeowner Is Suing Amazon Over a Data Center Being Built by His Home—That He Says Is Already Making Life Unbearable https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/virginia-homeowner-suing-amazon-over-data-center-unbearable/

YIKES. And now a word or two from the great 20th century philosopher Willie:

Amen.

Scary Charts (Prescription Drug edition) – 08.02.26

Today, three PBMs, CVS Caremark (34% market share), Express Scripts (23%, owned by Cigna’s Evernorth), and Optum Rx (22%, owned by UnitedHealth Group), control nearly 80% of all U.S. prescription claims. In exchange for placing a manufacturer’s drug on the formulary, or giving it preferred status over competing therapies, the PBM negotiates rebates, administrative fees, and performance payments from the manufacturer. A portion of those payments flows back to the health plan, while the PBM retains part of the negotiated revenue.

One feature of today’s market that surprises many people is how vertically integrated it has become. The largest PBMs are no longer independent middlemen. They sit inside healthcare conglomerates that also own insurers, pharmacies, physician groups, specialty pharmacies, and mail-order pharmacies. For example, CVS Health owns Aetna, CVS Caremark, CVS Pharmacy, MinuteClinic, and Signify Health. UnitedHealth Group owns UnitedHealthcare, Optum Rx, and Optum Health. Cigna owns Express Scripts through Evernorth. This consolidation has fueled ongoing debate about whether these organizations can optimize each part of the supply chain independently or whether incentives increasingly favor the parent company as a whole. Mark Cuban on Breaking the Drug Pricing Cartel: Inside Cost Plus Drugshttps://pearhealthcareplaybook.substack.com/p/mark-cuban-on-breaking-the-drug-pricing

Hat Tip – https://ritholtz.com/2026/08/10-sunday-reads-239/

Yikes.

This Is Not Your Grandfather’s Weed

So let me be the doctor who says it plainly. This is not the mild plant of the 1970s. Then, cannabis was 1-3% THC. Today’s products run 15-25%, and concentrates — dabs, vapes, wax — hit 70-90%+. When people say “it’s natural, it’s harmless,” they’re defending a product that no longer exists. We didn’t legalize the old plant. We industrialized a far more potent one.

A Danish registry study followed 6,788 people diagnosed with substance-induced psychosis. Overall, 32.2 percent later developed schizophrenia-spectrum or bipolar disorder. Among those with cannabis-induced psychosis, 47.4 percent later received one of those diagnoses.

A large Ontario cohort found that approximately 26 percent of people who presented to an emergency department with cannabis-induced psychosis were diagnosed with a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder within three years. The corresponding rate after alcohol-induced psychosis was approximately 8.9 percent. Among the substances studied, cannabis-induced psychosis carried the highest risk of later transition to schizophrenia-spectrum illness. Is it cannabis-induced psychosis or bipolar disorder? https://kevinmd.com/2026/07/is-it-cannabis-induced-psychosis-or-bipolar-disorder.html

YIKES.

Too Tired to Read Your Kid a Bedtime Story?

Meta is testing an app that uses AI to automate bedtime stories for children. The future is here, folks — and boy, is it depressing.

The app, first caught by 9to5Mac, is called “StoryKit.” (It’s not yet available in the US; Meta confirmed to TechCrunch that it’s currently testing StoryKit in pilot countries.) Per a webpage for the app, parents pick a character either by creating one or taking a “photo of their favorite toy or person to bring them to life,” then describe a setting or world for the story to take place in. They can also ask the story to include a specific lesson or moral, which the app says will allow it to “weave in values like kindness, courage, or empathy without it feeling like a lecture.”

Meta Working on Crushingly Sad AI App That Tells Bedtime Stories to Children, for “Tired” Parentshttps://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/meta-sad-ai-app-stories-children

BULLSHIT!

The Nurse Will See You Now (from the Philippines)

Some U.S. employers use local third-party agencies to hire Filipinos with nursing experience, while others insist on American nursing licenses.But for many virtual healthcare assistants, including telesitters, a degree in any medical field will do. The remote nurses, who usually work the graveyard shift at night from their homes or offices in the Philippines, earn between $5 and $10 per hour, compared to the average pay of more than $45 an hour for registered nurses in the U.S.

The country has grown into a “clinical process outsourcing powerhouse … [and] a premier global hub for supporting over-stressed international healthcare systems,” JL Botor, president of HIMAP, told Rest of World.

U.S. hospitals and clinics can save up to 70% in labor costs by hiring Filipino workers, said Botor, who expects the industry to expand due to the chronic labor shortage, as well as the growing use of AI. Companies will automate easier tasks such as note-taking, and lean more heavily on human oversight for other tasks, he said. He declined to name the U.S. hospitals and clinics that outsource work to the Philippines, citing confidentiality agreements.

Your next nurse may monitor you from the Philippines

https://restofworld.org/2026/u-s-healthcare-philippines-remote-nurses/

Brave New World.

Cognitive Surrender

AI’s Catastrophic Risk Isn’t Rogue Machines, It’s Cognitive Surrender
Evan Liu / Jun 17, 2026

This story was originally published by Tech Policy Press

In the beginning, the Bible says God created man in His own image. “And the LORD God formed man of the dust of the ground,” Genesis tells us, “and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living soul.” In 1818, the English novelist Mary Shelley wrote a new creation myth. “Accursed creator! Why did you form a monster so hideous that even you turned from me in disgust? God, in pity, made man beautiful and alluring, after his own image,” Shelley wrote, “but my form is a filthy type of yours, more horrid even from the very resemblance.”

In 2023, OpenAI’s GPT-4 launched to the public. It purportedly “passed” the bar exam in the 90th percentile and scored higher on the SAT than most of the students. Now, AI writes code, argues philosophy, and generates publishable prose. In some fields, frontier models answer boundary-breaking questions in minutes, not years. The gap between human and machine capability, which took centuries to close in physical labor, closed substantially in some forms of cognitive work within the span of a few years. With generative AI, humanity has flipped the creation myth on its head. We’ve built something that, on certain kinds of problems, exceeds what individual humans can do not through size or strength, but through scale and pattern recognition.

While God obviously made man lesser than Himself, Frankenstein’s monster actually surpassed him in strength and prowess. While intelligent, however, the monster was never able to match Frankenstein’s scientific prowess; when it came to attaining his ultimate goal of companionship, the monster relied on Frankenstein to build his bride. In our new reality of creation, we appear to want to do the reverse. Instead of creating a more physically powerful being, humanity seeks to develop an intelligence that exceeds its own.

What that inversion may cost us is what this essay is about. Rather than ruining us with brutality, AI threatens humanity with temptation, offering an irrefusable fix-all that condemns human effort to obsolescence and denatures the bonds that spur learning and development.

Learning is often driven by inherently pure motives: curiosity, love of craft, or desire for meaning. But people also set out to learn in order to reap future earnings and increase their material utility. No matter the goal, learning is fundamentally an act of faith in the future. To spend three years mastering tax law or organic chemistry or the novels of Henry James is to make a wager: that the future will arrive, that it will resemble the present enough to reward you for acquiring knowledge, that the slow accumulation of competence will eventually be redeemed. Whether preparing for case interviews at McKinsey or bolstering their résumé for graduate school applications, many students today are at least partially motivated by the rewards that their learning might promise.

AI redefines the odds of that wager. It diminishes the economic premium associated with knowledge and skill by removing scarcity from the equation, dismantling the motivation architecture for learning. Beyond the economic consequences, however, AI erodes something harder to quantify: the identity that mastery once conferred. Long hours in the library or the time spent in an apprenticeship formed the foundation of cognitive identities that people would leverage, building their skillset by solving challenging problems and dedicating time and energy to learning. They used to define themselves by their passions, spending years reading, practicing and mastering their fields in order to answer difficult questions. When AI can produce competent analysis in seconds, learning begins to feel unnecessary.

Recent research has begun to describe this shift as“cognitive surrender”: the tendency to adopt AI-generated outputs without a second glance, bypassing the friction of reasoning in favor of outsourcing the work of deliberation. The concern is not that AI makes people less intelligent overnight, but that constant reliance on artificial cognition changes our relationship to effort itself. The student who once wrestled with a difficult text now asks Claude for a summary. The programmer who once debugged line by line now supervises generated code they barely understand. Over time, the muscle of sustained thought weakens through disuse.
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This intellectual reality is already taking shape. In classrooms, students increasingly question whether their work will benefit their futures. Every time that a philosophy student prompts Claude to write a term paper overnight or a computer science student asks Gemini to solve an entire problem set, the sense of futility spreads. I’ve witnessed classmates complete class projects in minutes with a few prompts, removing any struggle or challenge in schoolwork. Groupwork, which used to revolve around intellectual sparring and genuine debate, now boils down to asking ChatGPT for the best path forward. When I write code using AI tools like Gemini or Claude, the sheer volume and speed at which they program leaves me feeling empty and mindless, completely outclassed by these overwhelming models. My skills and insight have been taken out of the equation, making me no more than a supervisor to agents that have less and less need for me. The agency and pride that came from building up projects from scratch no longer exists.

This deterioration of intellectual faith does not occur in a vacuum. It lands on a generation that was already losing faith in the future for reasons that have nothing to do with AI. As the income required to afford a median-priced American home has jumped 70% since 2019, only about one in five Gen Z adults believe the American Dream is “very much alive.” A TransUnion study comparing 22-to-24-year-olds today with millennials at the same age found that Gen Z is earning less, carrying more debt, and experiencing higher delinquency rates, with 14% of Gen Zers describing themselves as “extremely stressed out” about money, compared to 8% of millennials at their age. Most critically, McKinsey’s American Opportunity Survey found that unlike previous generations, Gen Z workers are less likely to expect their period of financial insecurity to ever end, and harbor high levels of doubt about their eventual ability to buy homes or retire at all.

This is the context in which a striking behavioral shift is occurring. Rather than doubling down on conventional wealth-building, a significant portion of young people are making a different calculation entirely. According to Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study, almost a third of Gen Z are risking money on sports betting, prediction markets, and crypto; of those, eight in ten believe these assets offer a faster path to their goals than traditional methods.

The economic theory underlying this behavior is straightforward, even if rarely stated plainly. People discount future rewards relative to present ones. The size of that discount reflects how much one trusts the future—the less they trust the future, the more they favor immediate payoff. A generation that grew up through a global pandemic, a student debt crisis, and a climate emergency has rational cause to apply a heavy discount to any future payoff that requires decades of patient accumulation to realize. The expected value of a small chance at fast wealth looks more attractive not because young people have become reckless, but because they have assessed their odds under the conventional path and found them wanting.

AI does not cause this dynamic, but it accelerates it, and adds a dimension the economic data cannot capture. The gambler still believes in the possibility of winning, betting on some outcome they can still imagine reaching. What AI introduces is something more total: the suspicion that self-investment is inherently a losing proposition. Why spend three years becoming a competent writer, coder, or analyst when the tool that outperforms you is already free, in your pocket, and improving faster than any human can match? In previous eras of technological disruption, competence still mattered because there were other avenues in which humans could pivot to and still contribute to society. When powerful agents are capable of acting faster and more precisely than humans in just about every field imaginable, however, it’s hard to justify developing skills and abilities that will rapidly fall into disuse.

Frankenstein ends with the scientist’s destruction, as his body finally gives out on his quest to destroy his creation. In Shelley’s book, Victor finds reprieve from his inhumane creation in the natural world, seeking solace in the grandness of God’s creation that mitigates his guilt from his demonic offspring. I have found myself needing something similar: not faith exactly, but the suspicion that the chain of creation does not simply terminate with us handing dominion to our machines. “Wherefore I perceive that there is nothing better, than that a man should rejoice in his own works; for that is his portion” (Ecclesiastes 3:22). Perhaps what remains uniquely human is not intelligence, but the choice to find meaning beyond the material world in effort and work. ChatGPT can write this essay, but it cannot derive satisfaction from having written it. What Ecclesiastes terms as the portion, or the private, irreducible fact of having made something with the full weight of your attention and your struggle, remains, for now, ours alone.

Evan Liu is a recent graduate from Harvard University where he studied Applied Mathematics and Economics, with a secondary in Computer Science. He is broadly interested in understanding the economic and cultural impacts of AI as the technology continues to improve.