I Need To Get Out of the House More

June 8, 2026June 8, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 3 Comments

Abstract from the study Home alone: Remote work, isolation, and mental health – Science 4 Jun 2026 Vol 392, Issue 6802 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aec7671

How does remote work affect isolation and mental health? We drew on five nationally representative surveys of American workers (N = 588,322) conducted from 2011 to 2024, omitting the peak pandemic years of 2020–2021. Our difference-in-differences approach compared changes in mental health among people in remotable jobs—who experienced a large and persistent rise in remote work since COVID-19—to people in nonremotable jobs, where remote work increased far less. We found that remote work increases time spent alone, worsens mental well-being across multiple measures, and increases the use of mental health services and prescriptions. These effects were concentrated among individuals living alone. We estimate that the rise of remote work explains about a third of the increase in isolation and mental distress between 2011–2019 and 2022–2024.

Highlights from the NPR article People love working from home. But does it love them back? A new study says no – https://www.npr.org/2026/06/08/nx-s1-5848125/remote-work-mental-health-isolation

Workers in remotable jobs had experienced a 58% rise in hours spent alone compared to people in non-remotable jobs
These workers also saw a 72% rise in chances of spending their whole day with no human contact.
Remote workers aren’t making up for that lost social connection by socializing after work.
People in remote jobs also saw a rise in symptoms of emotional distress, evaluated with a standardized questionnaire about symptoms of anxiety and depression.
They also had more visits to mental health care providers and used more prescription psychiatric meds.
Remote workers who live alone saw the largest increase (83%) in chances of spending their days with no social contact.

I really need to get out of the house more.

Study Failure to Learn Success

June 6, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / Leave a comment

Michael Girdley on private equity:

The lesson is pretty straightforward. You’re going to go buy a business, and you’re going to look and say, “Where can I cut costs? How can I start to optimize and streamline this?” You can cut fat, but you definitely don’t want to cut muscle, and you don’t want to cut bone. That’s exactly what these guys did. Why did they do that? They’re private equity guys. They get paid on management fees and the deals when they turn around and put them out in the public. They don’t care about the long term. They care about the next three to five years, and that’s exactly what they optimized for.

You Will Own Nothing and Be Happy

June 5, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 7 Comments

In her original post, Auken predicted a time, viz. 2030, wherein she would not ‘own anything’, not a car, a house, nor even any clothes. This was because, she explained, all things previously regarded as a ‘product’ would be supplied and available in the future as a ‘service’. As a result, everything that one might need could be rented, thereby eliminating the need, although not necessarily the right, to ‘own anything’. This was “a good life”, Auken concluded. A future with no individual ownership is not a happy one: Property theory shows why – Futures, Volume 152, 2023 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328723001131

Text message received, deleted.

I will never sell my house to a modern day slum landlord.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Classroom?

June 5, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / Leave a comment

Retraction Note to: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04787-y, published online 06 May 2025. The Editor has decided to retract this paper owing to concerns regarding discrepancies in the meta-analysis. These issues ultimately undermine the confidence the Editor can place in the validity of the analysis and resulting conclusions. The authors have not responded to correspondence regarding this retraction. Retraction Note: The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysis – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-026-07310-z

The jury’s still out on AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool, but research so far paints a grim picture. Using AI chatbots can impair critical thinking, result in lower brain activity during cognitive tasks, and has been linked to memory loss. A Major Paper Claiming AI Is Good for Students Just Got Retracted, Which Is Very Bad News for Advocates of AI in the Classroom – https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/study-ai-good-for-students-retracted

AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool is probably better for people who already know how to think having “learned” stuff the old fashioned way. AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool for some of the younger generations has shown promise in one area known as cheating.

Last year, a survey of some 500 Princeton seniors found that over 27 percent admitted to cheating with an AI model like ChatGPT, while about half said they knew about a violation of the honor code. If those are the numbers at a vaunted Ivy league, just imagine what conditions are like for the rest of the country. Princeton in Shambles Over AI Cheating – https://futurism.com/future-society/princeton-shambles-ai-cheating

BTW, the estimated cost of attendance for 2026-27 is $94,624 at Princeton U. https://admission.princeton.edu/cost-aid/fees-payment-options

Maybe the Princeton kids had to cheat because they offloaded too much of their own thinking and by default, didn’t learn how to think.

The risks of using generative artificial intelligence to educate children and teens currently overshadow the benefits, according to a new study by the Brookings Institution’s Center for Universal Education… The report describes a kind of doom loop of AI dependence, where students increasingly off-load their own thinking onto the technology, leading to the kind of cognitive decline or atrophy more commonly associated with aging brains… Rebecca Winthrop, one of the report’s authors and a senior fellow at Brookings, warns, “When kids use generative AI that tells them what the answer is they are not thinking for themselves. They’re not learning to parse truth from fiction. They’re not learning to understand what makes a good argument. They’re not learning about different perspectives in the world because they’re actually not engaging in the material.“ The risks of AI in schools outweigh the benefits – https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5674741/ai-schools-education?

Your final food for thought.

CEOs are uniquely prone to AI psychosis because they’re sufficiently distant from the last mile of work that still has to happen to generate most value with AI.

So when they play with AI, they see the happy path results, often not considering the next 10 or 20 things that have… https://t.co/ne5mvJ4Rgx
— Aaron Levie (@levie) May 24, 2026

I climb telephone poles. It’s awesome.

June 3, 2026June 3, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / Leave a comment

In a small Ohio city between Dayton and Columbus, the American Dream is alive and well for 24-year-old Kyson Cook. The father of one owns a three-bedroom home, has no debt beyond his mortgage and ends most workdays around 4:30 p.m., leaving plenty of time to shoot pool, go fishing or spend time with family. He has a small plot of land with space for his daughter to play, along with enough money to buy her whatever toys she wants and regularly contribute to a mutual fund with her name on it, without needing to cut back on new clothes, vacations or eating out. The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream — and blue-collar workers are poised to win – https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/ai-hiring-slowdown-skilled-trade-workers.html

Your Post-Memorial Day long read. Bonus – Scary Charts!

Let’s create existential distress and deep anxiety in your employees!

Taking the brunt of this are young workers. According to a recent survey by yet another consulting firm, most of the AI-driven headcount reduction that CEOs are bracing for is expected to focus on early-career positions. The reasoning for that, as it goes, is that AI is best at automating simpler tasks that an early-career worker would be expected to perform at a company as they get on-the-job training needed to mature into higher-level positions. But many executives, dazzled by the promise of an AI chatbot that can finish tasks in mere seconds and work 24/7 without needing so much as a bathroom break, have said to hell with early-career workers and training the future of the workforce. 99% of CEOs Expect AI-Driven Layoffs in the Next Two Years – https://gizmodo.com/99-of-ceos-expect-ai-driven-layoffs-in-the-next-two-years-2000762994

Or you can believe the NY Federal Reserve.

We document that one factor contributing to youth unemployment is the four-fold rise in remote work since the pandemic. Employers may not want to hire fresh graduates onto distributed teams because it is more difficult to teach them the requisite skills from afar. Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined – https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote-work-leaves-younger-workers-sidelined/

Good luck trying to determine what’s true. It’s only the worst job market for college grads ever.

The Fear Shared By Most (Not Just Another Random Thought on Retirement)

May 30, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 1 Comment

If there’s one thing Americans fear more than death, it might be outliving their savings. That’s one finding from an annual survey by the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement. It found that 67% of Americans worry more about running out of money than death. Americans fear this retirement setback more than death – https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/05/04/retirement-fears-outliving-savings/89897704007/

Yes dear reader, yet another post in the never ending series of random thoughts on retirement. For the curious, here’s a link to some previous posts https://lifeunderwriter.net/tag/retirement/. I am an Old Guy who is old enough to be retired but isn’t retired and still working. After many mornings spent in deep contemplation and many posts where I think out loud I’ve finally accepted my fate and come to a deeper understanding of why I do what I do.

I’ve spent a lifetime working in risk management. Finally, the light bulb came on.

I am actively managing my longevity risk. It’s what I do. I manage risks.

The majority of our friends are retired. I’m always asked when I’m going to retire. My answer was always “Don’t know”. I subsequently modified my response to “Two to four years”. This has been my answer for the past two years. But now when someone asks when I will retire, my answer will be:

I am managing my longevity risk. I am managing future inflation risk.

Imagine you retire at 65, feeling confident. You’ve budgeted $80,000 a year to live comfortably — travel, dining out, covering healthcare, the works.

Fast-forward 25 years.

At age 85, you’re still spending about $80,000 a year … but that no longer buys what it used to.

That nice dinner out that cost $100 now costs about $210

A $5,000 annual vacation is now closer to $10,500

Groceries that ran $10,000 a year are now over $21,000

In other words, your $80,000 lifestyle now costs roughly $168,000 to maintain.

But if your income hasn’t kept pace — if it’s still around $80,000 — your lifestyle has effectively been cut in half. Inflation Is the New Fixed Expense in Retirement https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/inflation-the-new-fixed-expense-in-retirement

Economist Teresa Ghilarducci is of the opinion working longer is not a plan but an illusion.

My colleagues Anthony Webb, Michael Papadopoulos and I called it an illusion. In paper The Illusory Benefits of Working Longer on Financial Preparedness for Retirement, we found that older workers with insufficient savings are routinely advised to delay retirement — but that this advice collides with the reality of what the labor market actually offers aging workers. 62-Year Old Works His Whole Life. He Has No Savings. He’s Not Unusual. – https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2026/05/21/62-year-old-works-his-whole-life-he-has-no-savings-hes-not-unusual/

Ghilarducci is spot on with her assessment. My plan on working longer wasn’t really a plan so much as it was a set of assumptions. Everything had to go as “planned” or forget about working longer. The two major variables were continued good health and finding an employer that values older workers.

I got lucky. My illusion is working (pun intended).

Scary Charts 05.17.26

May 17, 2026May 17, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 6 Comments

Source – The Class of 2026 is cooked https://www.semafor.com/article/05/15/2026/ai-has-contorted-the-job-market-for-twentysomethings-leaving-college-this-may

Source – https://layoffs.fyi/

“I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce,” said John Romeo, who leads the consulting firm’s research arm, the Oliver Wyman Forum. “It’s those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivity.” That’s because of the types of tasks that AI agents are able to perform, from writing code at the level of a junior developer to evaluating sales leads. What the agents can’t do in many fields is make judgment calls using the insight that comes from on-the-job experience, according to labor experts. AI Poised to Tilt Job Market Leverage Toward Older Workers – https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ai-poised-tilt-job-market-150000094.html

Yikes!

If you managed to scroll down this far here’s a bonus video.

(Less Than) Random Thoughts on Retirement – 05.03.26

May 3, 2026May 3, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 2 Comments

Yes dear reader, yet another post in the never ending series of random thoughts on retirement. https://lifeunderwriter.net/tag/random-thoughts-on-retirement/

Though the traditional retirement age in the U.S. typically falls between 62 and 67, many Americans continue working beyond that point. As of 2024, slightly more than 22% of adults aged 65 and older are still employed, either full-time or part-time. Though the traditional retirement age in the U.S. typically falls between 62 and 67, many Americans continue working beyond that point. As of 2024, slightly more than 22% of adults aged 65 and older are still employed, either full-time or part-time. – https://financebuzz.com/working-in-retirement-data

I’m not the only Old Guy who is still working past age 65.

But despite the fact I’m not the only Old Guy who is still working past age 65 more people are starting retirements earlier than they expected (always have a Plan B and maybe even a Plan C).

2026 EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey https://www.ebri.org/content/2026-ebri-greenwald-retirement-confidence-survey

I just learned I’m not the only Old Guy who still has a mortgage.

Over the past three decades, the share of homeowners ages 65 to 79 with a mortgage rose from 24% to 41%, while median mortgage debt surged by 400%, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. More Americans aging into retirement are still paying down mortgages – https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/06/09/more-older-americans-continue-to-pay-mortgages

I also learned about the disappearance of structured cognitive demand in retirement.

A 2025 systematic review published in Health Psychology Review found that retirement is associated with measurable cognitive decline, not just because people age, but because structured cognitive demand disappears. Researchers have called it “mental retirement”: The brain follows the body’s example and withdraws from challenge. Gary Has a Plan for Retirement: Crash on the Sofa and Veg. Here’s the Problem With That …https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/your-long-term-retirement-plan-needs-a-purpose

I’m now paranoid about the disappearance of structured cognitive demand with a mortgage to pay off and too scared to retire.

“Medical” Advice for the Masses

April 19, 2026 / SupremeCmdr / 1 Comment

The AIs’ failure rates exceeded 80 percent when provided with given ambiguous symptoms that could match more than one condition, and for more straightforward cases that included including physical exam findings and lab results, they still failed 40 percent of the time. The researchers also found that unlike human clinicians, the “LLMs collapse prematurely onto single answers,” resulting in “weak performance” across all models. Millions of Americans Are Talking to AI Instead of Going to the Doctor, and It’s Giving Them Horrendously Flawed Medical Advice – https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/millions-americans-ai-instead-doctor-bad-advice

Wow.

From the study discussion section:

Our evaluation suggests that despite rapid advances in pattern recognition and knowledge retrieval, current LLMs still lack the reasoning processes needed for safe clinical use. The consistent gap between differential diagnosis and final diagnosis highlights how differently these systems process information compared with physicians. Clinicians preserve uncertainty and iteratively refine differential diagnoses, whereas LLMs collapse prematurely onto single answers, a limitation that persists across model generations. Their weak performance on differential diagnosis, consistent with a prior study from authors of the current work,⁸ suggests these limitations persist across early and state-of-the-art models. The risk is not just that LLMs are sometimes wrong but that their reasoning is brittle precisely where uncertainty and nuance matter most. Benchmarks that reward only correct final answers risk reinforcing this shortcutting, widening the gap between marketing claims and the skills actually required at the bedside. Large Language Model Performance and Clinical Reasoning Tasks – Rao AS, Esmail KP, Lee RS, et al. Large Language Model Performance and Clinical Reasoning Tasks. JAMA Netw Open. 2026;9(4):e264003. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.4003 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2847679

Wow.

Should you really trust health advice from an AI chatbot? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyepyy82kxo. Dr Nicholas Tiller explains: “They are designed to give very confident, very authoritative responses, and that conveys a sense of credibility, so the user assumes that it must know what it’s talking about.” He thinks chatbots should be avoided for health advice unless you have the expertise to know when the AI is getting the answers wrong.

The study’s Conclusions The audited chatbots performed poorly when answering questions in misinformation-prone health and medical fields. Continued deployment without public education and oversight risks amplifying misinformation. Tiller NB, Marcon AR, Zenone M, et al

Generative artificial intelligence-driven chatbots and medical misinformation: an accuracy, referencing and readability audit BMJ Open 2026;16:e112695. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-112695 https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/4/e112695