Cognitive Surrender

AI’s Catastrophic Risk Isn’t Rogue Machines, It’s Cognitive Surrender
Evan Liu / Jun 17, 2026

This story was originally published by Tech Policy Press

In the beginning, the Bible says God created man in His own image. “And the LORD God formed man of the dust of the ground,” Genesis tells us, “and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living soul.” In 1818, the English novelist Mary Shelley wrote a new creation myth. “Accursed creator! Why did you form a monster so hideous that even you turned from me in disgust? God, in pity, made man beautiful and alluring, after his own image,” Shelley wrote, “but my form is a filthy type of yours, more horrid even from the very resemblance.”

In 2023, OpenAI’s GPT-4 launched to the public. It purportedly “passed” the bar exam in the 90th percentile and scored higher on the SAT than most of the students. Now, AI writes code, argues philosophy, and generates publishable prose. In some fields, frontier models answer boundary-breaking questions in minutes, not years. The gap between human and machine capability, which took centuries to close in physical labor, closed substantially in some forms of cognitive work within the span of a few years. With generative AI, humanity has flipped the creation myth on its head. We’ve built something that, on certain kinds of problems, exceeds what individual humans can do not through size or strength, but through scale and pattern recognition.

While God obviously made man lesser than Himself, Frankenstein’s monster actually surpassed him in strength and prowess. While intelligent, however, the monster was never able to match Frankenstein’s scientific prowess; when it came to attaining his ultimate goal of companionship, the monster relied on Frankenstein to build his bride. In our new reality of creation, we appear to want to do the reverse. Instead of creating a more physically powerful being, humanity seeks to develop an intelligence that exceeds its own.

What that inversion may cost us is what this essay is about. Rather than ruining us with brutality, AI threatens humanity with temptation, offering an irrefusable fix-all that condemns human effort to obsolescence and denatures the bonds that spur learning and development.

Learning is often driven by inherently pure motives: curiosity, love of craft, or desire for meaning. But people also set out to learn in order to reap future earnings and increase their material utility. No matter the goal, learning is fundamentally an act of faith in the future. To spend three years mastering tax law or organic chemistry or the novels of Henry James is to make a wager: that the future will arrive, that it will resemble the present enough to reward you for acquiring knowledge, that the slow accumulation of competence will eventually be redeemed. Whether preparing for case interviews at McKinsey or bolstering their résumé for graduate school applications, many students today are at least partially motivated by the rewards that their learning might promise.

AI redefines the odds of that wager. It diminishes the economic premium associated with knowledge and skill by removing scarcity from the equation, dismantling the motivation architecture for learning. Beyond the economic consequences, however, AI erodes something harder to quantify: the identity that mastery once conferred. Long hours in the library or the time spent in an apprenticeship formed the foundation of cognitive identities that people would leverage, building their skillset by solving challenging problems and dedicating time and energy to learning. They used to define themselves by their passions, spending years reading, practicing and mastering their fields in order to answer difficult questions. When AI can produce competent analysis in seconds, learning begins to feel unnecessary.

Recent research has begun to describe this shift as“cognitive surrender”: the tendency to adopt AI-generated outputs without a second glance, bypassing the friction of reasoning in favor of outsourcing the work of deliberation. The concern is not that AI makes people less intelligent overnight, but that constant reliance on artificial cognition changes our relationship to effort itself. The student who once wrestled with a difficult text now asks Claude for a summary. The programmer who once debugged line by line now supervises generated code they barely understand. Over time, the muscle of sustained thought weakens through disuse.
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This intellectual reality is already taking shape. In classrooms, students increasingly question whether their work will benefit their futures. Every time that a philosophy student prompts Claude to write a term paper overnight or a computer science student asks Gemini to solve an entire problem set, the sense of futility spreads. I’ve witnessed classmates complete class projects in minutes with a few prompts, removing any struggle or challenge in schoolwork. Groupwork, which used to revolve around intellectual sparring and genuine debate, now boils down to asking ChatGPT for the best path forward. When I write code using AI tools like Gemini or Claude, the sheer volume and speed at which they program leaves me feeling empty and mindless, completely outclassed by these overwhelming models. My skills and insight have been taken out of the equation, making me no more than a supervisor to agents that have less and less need for me. The agency and pride that came from building up projects from scratch no longer exists.

This deterioration of intellectual faith does not occur in a vacuum. It lands on a generation that was already losing faith in the future for reasons that have nothing to do with AI. As the income required to afford a median-priced American home has jumped 70% since 2019, only about one in five Gen Z adults believe the American Dream is “very much alive.” A TransUnion study comparing 22-to-24-year-olds today with millennials at the same age found that Gen Z is earning less, carrying more debt, and experiencing higher delinquency rates, with 14% of Gen Zers describing themselves as “extremely stressed out” about money, compared to 8% of millennials at their age. Most critically, McKinsey’s American Opportunity Survey found that unlike previous generations, Gen Z workers are less likely to expect their period of financial insecurity to ever end, and harbor high levels of doubt about their eventual ability to buy homes or retire at all.

This is the context in which a striking behavioral shift is occurring. Rather than doubling down on conventional wealth-building, a significant portion of young people are making a different calculation entirely. According to Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study, almost a third of Gen Z are risking money on sports betting, prediction markets, and crypto; of those, eight in ten believe these assets offer a faster path to their goals than traditional methods.

The economic theory underlying this behavior is straightforward, even if rarely stated plainly. People discount future rewards relative to present ones. The size of that discount reflects how much one trusts the future—the less they trust the future, the more they favor immediate payoff. A generation that grew up through a global pandemic, a student debt crisis, and a climate emergency has rational cause to apply a heavy discount to any future payoff that requires decades of patient accumulation to realize. The expected value of a small chance at fast wealth looks more attractive not because young people have become reckless, but because they have assessed their odds under the conventional path and found them wanting.

AI does not cause this dynamic, but it accelerates it, and adds a dimension the economic data cannot capture. The gambler still believes in the possibility of winning, betting on some outcome they can still imagine reaching. What AI introduces is something more total: the suspicion that self-investment is inherently a losing proposition. Why spend three years becoming a competent writer, coder, or analyst when the tool that outperforms you is already free, in your pocket, and improving faster than any human can match? In previous eras of technological disruption, competence still mattered because there were other avenues in which humans could pivot to and still contribute to society. When powerful agents are capable of acting faster and more precisely than humans in just about every field imaginable, however, it’s hard to justify developing skills and abilities that will rapidly fall into disuse.

Frankenstein ends with the scientist’s destruction, as his body finally gives out on his quest to destroy his creation. In Shelley’s book, Victor finds reprieve from his inhumane creation in the natural world, seeking solace in the grandness of God’s creation that mitigates his guilt from his demonic offspring. I have found myself needing something similar: not faith exactly, but the suspicion that the chain of creation does not simply terminate with us handing dominion to our machines. “Wherefore I perceive that there is nothing better, than that a man should rejoice in his own works; for that is his portion” (Ecclesiastes 3:22). Perhaps what remains uniquely human is not intelligence, but the choice to find meaning beyond the material world in effort and work. ChatGPT can write this essay, but it cannot derive satisfaction from having written it. What Ecclesiastes terms as the portion, or the private, irreducible fact of having made something with the full weight of your attention and your struggle, remains, for now, ours alone.

Evan Liu is a recent graduate from Harvard University where he studied Applied Mathematics and Economics, with a secondary in Computer Science. He is broadly interested in understanding the economic and cultural impacts of AI as the technology continues to improve.

Not Everyone Gets Lucky

My interviews with Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital, and famed for his “Chairman’s Memos,” were instructive.1 The first time he mentioned his good fortune, I pushed back, asking, “What about intelligence, hard work, and perseverance?”

His answer:

Everybody in my MBA class at the University of Chicago was very smart and very hard working. But hard work and intelligence are mere table stakes. Not everybody has fortune smile on them; not everybody gets lucky.”


Serendipity: The Role of Luck in Your Life and Careerhttps://ritholtz.com/2026/06/recognize-the-role-of-luck-in-your-life-and-career/

The older you get you do develop a better understanding of luck and random events. Interesting article.

Not everyone gets lucky.

The Dangers of Self-Diagnosis and AUD (Alcohol Use Disorder)

Using naltrexone to cut back on drinking isn’t new, says Sarah Wakeman, a senior medical director for substance use disorder at Mass General Brigham. The approach dates back to the 1980s with the Sinclair method, which pairs drinking with naltrexone to blunt alcohol’s pleasurable effects. In parts of Europe, Wakeman adds, people have long used a “pill-in-the-pocket” strategy, taking the medication only when they anticipate drinking. A decades-old drug is helping people drink less alcohol—without giving it up completelyhttps://www.nationalgeographic.com/health/article/naltrexone-drink-less-alcohol? (Paywall article)

The Provider Individual who is not a doctor will see you after you answer the questionnaire (this is the self-diagnosis part).

Oar Health is an online service offering naltrexone subscriptions to those with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Users can fill out a brief assessment which is reviewed by a medical professional, then be given a naltrexone prescription if appropriate. After a one-time $50 fee, subscriptions cost $297 for three months of medication, which comes out to $99 monthly. It’s currently available in 42 US states. Beyond the naltrexone prescription, Oar Health offers ongoing access to the support of a medication prescriber, a health coach, a Facebook group for community support, and extras like educational articles and guided reflections.Oar Health Review: Pros & Cons, Cost, & My Experiencehttps://www.choosingtherapy.com/oar-health-review/

Health coaches who are “naltrexone experts”! And The Sinclair Method might not work for everyone. https://drugfree.org/article/sinclair-method/

Depending upon the online service you choose you may get naltrexone prescribed when trying to get your doctor prescribed GLP-1 filled out even when you don’t have alcohol use disorder.

Telehealth companies such as Vida Health and its rivals offer lifestyle support so people taking drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound can have the most success on the drugs. But the companies often have another job: limiting obesity drug costs for employers.

The Vida Health nurse said he was a good candidate for Zepbound but insisted he try two generic drugs first: naltrexone, a drug used to curb alcohol and opioid use, and bupropion, an antidepressant. Neither drug is approved for obstructive sleep apnea. Primary care doctors raise alarm as telehealth companies get involved in obesity drugshttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/14/nx-s1-5805984/glp1-telehealth-weight-loss-drugs

Yikes.

College Students Are Losing the Ability to Read (and think)

More food for thought (but only if you can read and think):

In a new essay for The Chronicle Higher Education, university-level literature and writing instructor Tyler Jagt recalls how not a single one of his students could get through an assigned 20-page article, something that he had read “without complaint” as an undergraduate a decade ago…“So when a student tells me they ‘kept losing track’ of a 20-page article, I have to acknowledge that they may be describing a measurable neurological condition,” Jagt wrote. “The neural pathways that support sustained attention are built by use, and they atrophy without it. Your body is a use-it-or-lose-it system, and the brain is no exception.” College Students Are Rapidly Losing the Ability to Readhttps://futurism.com/future-society/college-students-losing-ability-read

No surprise then when graduates demonstrate Alarmingly Shallow Ideas.

Do we really want Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Classroom?

I Need To Get Out of the House More

Abstract from the study Home alone: Remote work, isolation, and mental health – Science 4 Jun 2026 Vol 392, Issue 6802 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aec7671

How does remote work affect isolation and mental health? We drew on five nationally representative surveys of American workers (N = 588,322) conducted from 2011 to 2024, omitting the peak pandemic years of 2020–2021. Our difference-in-differences approach compared changes in mental health among people in remotable jobs—who experienced a large and persistent rise in remote work since COVID-19—to people in nonremotable jobs, where remote work increased far less. We found that remote work increases time spent alone, worsens mental well-being across multiple measures, and increases the use of mental health services and prescriptions. These effects were concentrated among individuals living alone. We estimate that the rise of remote work explains about a third of the increase in isolation and mental distress between 2011–2019 and 2022–2024.

Highlights from the NPR article People love working from home. But does it love them back? A new study says nohttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/08/nx-s1-5848125/remote-work-mental-health-isolation

  • Workers in remotable jobs had experienced a 58% rise in hours spent alone compared to people in non-remotable jobs
  • These workers also saw a 72% rise in chances of spending their whole day with no human contact.
  • Remote workers aren’t making up for that lost social connection by socializing after work.
  • People in remote jobs also saw a rise in symptoms of emotional distress, evaluated with a standardized questionnaire about symptoms of anxiety and depression.
  • They also had more visits to mental health care providers and used more prescription psychiatric meds.
  • Remote workers who live alone saw the largest increase (83%) in chances of spending their days with no social contact.

I really need to get out of the house more.

Study Failure to Learn Success

Michael Girdley on private equity:

The lesson is pretty straightforward. You’re going to go buy a business, and you’re going to look and say, “Where can I cut costs? How can I start to optimize and streamline this?” You can cut fat, but you definitely don’t want to cut muscle, and you don’t want to cut bone. That’s exactly what these guys did. Why did they do that? They’re private equity guys. They get paid on management fees and the deals when they turn around and put them out in the public. They don’t care about the long term. They care about the next three to five years, and that’s exactly what they optimized for.

You Will Own Nothing and Be Happy

In her original post, Auken predicted a time, viz. 2030, wherein she would not ‘own anything’, not a car, a house, nor even any clothes. This was because, she explained, all things previously regarded as a ‘product’ would be supplied and available in the future as a ‘service’. As a result, everything that one might need could be rented, thereby eliminating the need, although not necessarily the right, to ‘own anything’. This was “a good life”, Auken concluded. A future with no individual ownership is not a happy one: Property theory shows why – Futures, Volume 152, 2023 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328723001131

Text message received, deleted.

I will never sell my house to a modern day slum landlord.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Classroom?

Retraction Note to: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04787-y, published online 06 May 2025. The Editor has decided to retract this paper owing to concerns regarding discrepancies in the meta-analysis. These issues ultimately undermine the confidence the Editor can place in the validity of the analysis and resulting conclusions. The authors have not responded to correspondence regarding this retraction. Retraction Note: The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysishttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-026-07310-z

The jury’s still out on AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool, but research so far paints a grim picture. Using AI chatbots can impair critical thinking, result in lower brain activity during cognitive tasks, and has been linked to memory loss. A Major Paper Claiming AI Is Good for Students Just Got Retracted, Which Is Very Bad News for Advocates of AI in the Classroomhttps://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/study-ai-good-for-students-retracted

AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool is probably better for people who already know how to think having “learned” stuff the old fashioned way. AI’s effectiveness as a learning tool for some of the younger generations has shown promise in one area known as cheating.

Last year, a survey of some 500 Princeton seniors found that over 27 percent admitted to cheating with an AI model like ChatGPT, while about half said they knew about a violation of the honor code. If those are the numbers at a vaunted Ivy league, just imagine what conditions are like for the rest of the country. Princeton in Shambles Over AI Cheatinghttps://futurism.com/future-society/princeton-shambles-ai-cheating

BTW, the estimated cost of attendance for 2026-27 is $94,624 at Princeton U. https://admission.princeton.edu/cost-aid/fees-payment-options

Maybe the Princeton kids had to cheat because they offloaded too much of their own thinking and by default, didn’t learn how to think.

The risks of using generative artificial intelligence to educate children and teens currently overshadow the benefits, according to a new study by the Brookings Institution’s Center for Universal Education… The report describes a kind of doom loop of AI dependence, where students increasingly off-load their own thinking onto the technology, leading to the kind of cognitive decline or atrophy more commonly associated with aging brains… Rebecca Winthrop, one of the report’s authors and a senior fellow at Brookings, warns, “When kids use generative AI that tells them what the answer is they are not thinking for themselves. They’re not learning to parse truth from fiction. They’re not learning to understand what makes a good argument. They’re not learning about different perspectives in the world because they’re actually not engaging in the material. The risks of AI in schools outweigh the benefitshttps://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5674741/ai-schools-education?

Your final food for thought.

I climb telephone poles. It’s awesome.

In a small Ohio city between Dayton and Columbus, the American Dream is alive and well for 24-year-old Kyson Cook. The father of one owns a three-bedroom home, has no debt beyond his mortgage and ends most workdays around 4:30 p.m., leaving plenty of time to shoot pool, go fishing or spend time with family. He has a small plot of land with space for his daughter to play, along with enough money to buy her whatever toys she wants and regularly contribute to a mutual fund with her name on it, without needing to cut back on new clothes, vacations or eating out. The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream — and blue-collar workers are poised to winhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/ai-hiring-slowdown-skilled-trade-workers.html

Your Post-Memorial Day long read. Bonus – Scary Charts!

Let’s create existential distress and deep anxiety in your employees!

Taking the brunt of this are young workers. According to a recent survey by yet another consulting firm, most of the AI-driven headcount reduction that CEOs are bracing for is expected to focus on early-career positions. The reasoning for that, as it goes, is that AI is best at automating simpler tasks that an early-career worker would be expected to perform at a company as they get on-the-job training needed to mature into higher-level positions. But many executives, dazzled by the promise of an AI chatbot that can finish tasks in mere seconds and work 24/7 without needing so much as a bathroom break, have said to hell with early-career workers and training the future of the workforce. 99% of CEOs Expect AI-Driven Layoffs in the Next Two Yearshttps://gizmodo.com/99-of-ceos-expect-ai-driven-layoffs-in-the-next-two-years-2000762994

Or you can believe the NY Federal Reserve.

We document that one factor contributing to youth unemployment is the four-fold rise in remote work since the pandemic. Employers may not want to hire fresh graduates onto distributed teams because it is more difficult to teach them the requisite skills from afar. Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelinedhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote-work-leaves-younger-workers-sidelined/

Good luck trying to determine what’s true. It’s only the worst job market for college grads ever.

The Fear Shared By Most (Not Just Another Random Thought on Retirement)

If there’s one thing Americans fear more than death, it might be outliving their savings. That’s one finding from an annual survey by the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement. It found that 67% of Americans worry more about running out of money than death. Americans fear this retirement setback more than death – https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/05/04/retirement-fears-outliving-savings/89897704007/

Yes dear reader, yet another post in the never ending series of random thoughts on retirement. For the curious, here’s a link to some previous posts https://lifeunderwriter.net/tag/retirement/. I am an Old Guy who is old enough to be retired but isn’t retired and still working. After many mornings spent in deep contemplation and many posts where I think out loud I’ve finally accepted my fate and come to a deeper understanding of why I do what I do.

I’ve spent a lifetime working in risk management. Finally, the light bulb came on.

I am actively managing my longevity risk. It’s what I do. I manage risks.

The majority of our friends are retired. I’m always asked when I’m going to retire. My answer was always “Don’t know”. I subsequently modified my response to “Two to four years”. This has been my answer for the past two years. But now when someone asks when I will retire, my answer will be:

I am managing my longevity risk. I am managing future inflation risk.

Imagine you retire at 65, feeling confident. You’ve budgeted $80,000 a year to live comfortably — travel, dining out, covering healthcare, the works.

Fast-forward 25 years.

At age 85, you’re still spending about $80,000 a year … but that no longer buys what it used to.

  • That nice dinner out that cost $100 now costs about $210
  • A $5,000 annual vacation is now closer to $10,500
  • Groceries that ran $10,000 a year are now over $21,000

In other words, your $80,000 lifestyle now costs roughly $168,000 to maintain.

But if your income hasn’t kept pace — if it’s still around $80,000 — your lifestyle has effectively been cut in half. Inflation Is the New Fixed Expense in Retirement https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/inflation-the-new-fixed-expense-in-retirement

Economist Teresa Ghilarducci is of the opinion working longer is not a plan but an illusion.

My colleagues Anthony Webb, Michael Papadopoulos and I called it an illusion. In paper The Illusory Benefits of Working Longer on Financial Preparedness for Retirement, we found that older workers with insufficient savings are routinely advised to delay retirement — but that this advice collides with the reality of what the labor market actually offers aging workers. 62-Year Old Works His Whole Life. He Has No Savings. He’s Not Unusual.https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2026/05/21/62-year-old-works-his-whole-life-he-has-no-savings-hes-not-unusual/

Ghilarducci is spot on with her assessment. My plan on working longer wasn’t really a plan so much as it was a set of assumptions. Everything had to go as “planned” or forget about working longer. The two major variables were continued good health and finding an employer that values older workers.

I got lucky. My illusion is working (pun intended).