COVID-19

Minimizing the Social Cost of COVID-19

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East Asian countries were the first to be infected, meaning they had little, if any, time to prepare. And yet many of them are among the countries that have reduced COVID-19 cases to near zero. The difference comes down to attitudes: what role and responsibilities each society attributes to government, and to what extent it expects the community to act as a collective agent of the common good.

In the US, there is a long-standing emphasis on personal freedom. “Small government” is a commonly heard refrain, with many arguing that individuals acting as self-interested participants in markets and in social and political processes will naturally produce positive outcomes. Government intervention – even in the event of a pandemic – infringes on individual rights and, indeed, on the very meaning of being an American. Protests over shelter-in-place orders and mask mandates reflect this view.

Minimizing the Social Cost of COVID-19 — https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/east-asia-covid19-successful-responses-institutional-arrangements-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2020-08

Meanwhile SD reported another triple digit increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases, as 380 new positive tests were recorded Sunday.

Sturgis resident here, the 5 days before the event were much bigger this year than normal because people had the wrong dates and then just kept those reservations instead of switching (or couldn’t switch because the places were full.)… The official count is around 460,000 and I’d say there was another 75-100 thousand the week before.

You Tube comment on a Tectonix video on cell phone migration patterns exiting Sturgis SD

Covid-19 in Australia: most infected health workers in Victoria’s second wave acquired virus at work

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Australia’s 14 day mandatory quarantine rules for overseas travelers are cited as a major reason for the country’s initial success in containing the virus, but unlike other states and territories, Victoria decided to contract private security firms to police them.10 The quarantine inquiry was told that, as a condition of the government’s contracts with the security firms, guards underwent just 30 minutes of online infection control training. There have also been lurid stories in the local media of security staff having sex with the quarantined travelers and claims that guards escorted some travelers on shopping trips despite the infection risks. But it has also been said that security staff were given insufficient supplies of PPE, which was often worn wrongly or for too long, and that there was a lack of medical waste bins in the hotels and insufficient medical oversight.11 As a result, security workers acquired infections from travelers who took it back to family members and other contacts in the community.

Covid-19 in Australia: most infected health workers in Victoria’s second wave acquired virus at work — BMJ 2020; 370 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3350 (Published 27 August 2020) — Citation: BMJ 2020;370:m3350

Quote for Today – 08.28.20

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A vocal minority argues that Covid-19 is not much worse than the influenza we ignore every winter, so both mandatory lockdowns and voluntary precautions have been unnecessary.

A glance at the data gives that argument a veneer of plausibility. The UK has suffered about 65,000 excess deaths during the first wave of the pandemic, and 25,000-30,000 excess deaths are attributed to flu in England alone during bad flu seasons. Is the disparity so great that the country needed to grind to a halt?

The flaw in the argument is clear: Covid was “only” twice as bad as a bad flu season because we took extreme measures to contain it. The effectiveness of the lockdown is being used as an argument that the lockdown was unnecessary. It is frustrating, but that is the nature of a self-defeating prophecy in a politicised environment.

Rats, mazes, and the power of self-fulfilling prophecies https://timharford.com/2020/08/rats-mazes-and-the-power-of-self-fulfilling-prophecies/

CDC Clusterf*ck!

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At issue are a set of guidelines released on Monday that say that people without symptoms who have come into contact with someone with Covid-19 do not necessarily need to be tested. Earlier, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had said that “testing was recommended” for the same group.

The modified guidelines sparked a significant backlash. The absence of evidence supporting the change puzzled public health experts. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that the guidelines would not be adopted in California; in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo called them “indefensible.” And Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters that he was undergoing surgery when the guidelines were approved last week — contradicting Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary for health, who said Fauci and others on the task force had approved the final version.

CDC director attempts to clarify controversial Covid-19 testing guidelines https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/27/redfield-clarify-controversial-testing-guidelines/?utm_campaign=rss

CDC attempts to explain guidelines they never developed. Dr. Fauci didn’t sign off on the new guidelines. Hmm…

Why Do Some People Weather Coronavirus Infection Unscathed?

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According to various estimates, between 20 and 45 percent of the people who get Covid-19 — and possibly more, according to a recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — sail through a coronavirus infection without realizing they ever had it. No fever or chills. No loss of smell or taste. No breathing difficulties. They don’t feel a thing.

Cite this: Emily Laber-Warren. Why Do Some People Weather Coronavirus Infection Unscathed? – Medscape – Aug 25, 2020. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/936288?src=rss#vp_1

Rapid Covid-19 Testing

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Here’s the key: What is more important than a perfect test is one that turns positive during the time period in which an individual can spread the virus to others—and that’s, purportedly, what these cheap tests do well. Generally, disease transmission in COVID-19 is believed to begin early—several days before one becomes symptomatic. Viral load levels peak early and then they gradually decline, with an individual unlikely to be infectious approximately eight to 10 days after showing symptoms.

Though efficacy needs to be better proven, these antigen tests are efficient at detecting virus at high viral loads. When they are used frequently during this period of infectivity, Mina believes their sensitivity and performance would far exceed that of a single PCR test. At any rate, Mina and his colleagues have demonstrated in their statistical models thatpublic health surveillance depends much more on frequency of testing and rapid reporting of results than it does on the comparative sensitivity of the tests themselves.

‘Instant Coffee’ COVID-19 Tests Could Be the Answer to Reopening the U.S. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/instant-coffee-covid-19-tests-could-be-the-answer-to-reopening-the-u-s/

Comparing PCR testing, the nasal swab vs. antigen testing which is much less expensive and produces rapid results, these tests are both commonly offered in Oklahoma. The difference in the tests is the sensitivity in the tests. The big difference between PCR and antigen is overall antigen tests are less sensitive. You can have confidence in a rapid antigen test if it says you are positive, but let’s say you are symptomatic and you go in for a test because you think you may have COVID-19 and they do an antigen test and you get a negative test — you should remember that 20% or more of antigen tests come back as negative. So there is high predictive value for positive.

OU Medicine chief explains why you should trust a positive result from a rapid COVID-19 test https://oklahoman.com/article/5669756/ou-medicine-chief-explains-why-you-should-trust-a-positive-result-from-a-rapid-covid-19-test

The Latest in COVID-19 News: Week Ending 08.22.20 – NEJM Journal Watch

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Click on the link for the NEJM Journal Watch weekly update.  NO paywalls on any of the links in this article.  (paywalls bother me)

https://www.jwatch.org/fw116961/2020/08/22/latest-covid-19-news-week-ending-aug-22

Meanwhile in Harrah, Oklahoma…

The corned beef became an unexpected, additional source of sadness: The flavors I love have become associated with the bitterness of closing down. I can only taste the sourness of worry. I can only smell the rottenness of having to furlough six people who depended on the pub for a paycheck. Years of enjoyment have boiled down to a few long months of anxiety, endless discussions about to close or stay open—and if we can reopen safely, how we will survive.

We own an Irish Pub in Harrah, Oklahoma. When Covid-19 hit, we had to eat our own corned beef and potatoes for weeks. https://thecounter.org/covid-19-essay-irish-pub-harrah-oklahoma-corned-beef-potatoes/

Children are Silent Spreaders of Covid-19

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“I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection,” says Lael Yonker, MD, director of the MGH Cystic Fibrosis Center and lead author of the study, “Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Reponses,” published in the Journal of Pediatrics. “I was not expecting the viral load to be so high. You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalized patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load.”

Massachusetts General Hospital. “Researchers show children are silent spreaders of virus that causes COVID-19: Comprehensive pediatric study examines viral load, immune response and hyperinflammation in pediatric COVID-19.” ScienceDaily. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200820102442.htm (accessed August 20, 2020).

This article is a must read for parents and politicians. In person school around the country has started. Be prepared in case your kid brings back more than just homework from school.

Clusterf**k at UNC

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Screenshot_2020-08-18 COVID-19 cases at UNC are ‘cluster #$%,’ student newspaper says in scathing editorial

The Daily Tar Heel, UNC Chapel Hill’s independent student newspaper, wasn’t holding back in an editorial published Monday, August 17, 2020, criticizing the university’s administration after four COVID-19 clusters were reported on campus. Editor’s note: Letters in the headline were blurred by McClatchy News. The Daily Tar Heel

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article245017180.html

As of Monday, 177 students were in isolation at UNC-Chapel Hill after testing positive for COVID-19, and hundreds more were in quarantine. Through last week, the test positivity rate on campus jumped over 10 percentage points to 13.6 percent. Such a high positivity rate indicates that the virus is spreading through the campus community. (According to the World Health Organization, anything over 5 percent is cause for concern.) There are likely students infected with the virus who aren’t showing symptoms, and they could leave campus without knowing they’re sick.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/18/21373482/unc-covid-outbreak-students-home-testing-university

UNC is sending some students back home without testing them for COVID-19

Using a public restroom? Mask up!

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Flushing public restroom toilets or urinals can spew clouds of particles carrying viruses, including COVID-19

The researchers’ work clearly shows public restrooms can be dangerous places for potentially becoming infected from a virus, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Other work has shown that both feces- and urine-based virus transmission is possible.

What the simulations revealed is disturbing. The trajectory of the tiny particles ejected by flushing a urinal “manifests an external spread type, with more than 57% of the particles traveling away from the urinal,” said Liu.

Journal Reference: Ji-Xiang Wang, Yun-Yun Li, Xiang-Dong Liu, Xiang Cao. Virus transmission from urinals. Physics of Fluids, 2020; 32 (8): 081703 DOI: 10.1063/5.0021450

Using a public restroom? Mask up!

Wear a mask.  Don’t flush.  Hold your breath.

Better yet, don’t pee in a public restroom.

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