How to fix the Covid-19 dumpster fire in the U.S.

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Pent-up people embraced newfound freedoms over-exuberantly, Fauci said. He suggests going back to Phase 1 of the reopening process and then working forward with more caution. “Do it the way they should have done it in the beginning,” he said.  “If we do that, particularly closing the bars, avoiding anything that has a congregation of a large number of people, wearing masks outside essentially all the time, keep distancing … I would almost guarantee that we would see a turnaround of the resurgence that we’re seeing now.”

How to fix the Covid-19 dumpster fire in the U.S.

Despite the click bait title this article is full of good ideas on what we can do to help tamper down the “dumpster fire”.  Worthwhile reading.

What Happens If Most Businesses & Consumers Tighten Their Belts at the Same Time?

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In April and May 2020, the Bank of Italy conducted a special survey of Italian households to collect data on the financial situation and expectations of households during the crisis linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of those surveyed said their household income had shrunk as a result of the measures adopted to contain the epidemic. The impact has been particularly severe on the self-employed. Over a third said they did not have enough liquid resources to cover essential household expenses for a period of three months. Households’ expectations regarding spending have also been affected by the economic situation: more than half of those interviewed believe that even when the epidemic is over, they will spend less on travel, holidays, restaurants, cinema and theatres than they did before the crisis.

The Bank of Italy

What Happens If Most Businesses & Consumers Tighten Their Belts at the Same Time?

Answer:

Not good.

 

Covid-19 Research 07.12.20

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Although COVID-19 is most well known for causing substantial respiratory pathology, it can also result in several extrapulmonary manifestations. These conditions include thrombotic complications, myocardial dysfunction and arrhythmia, acute coronary syndromes, acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal symptoms, hepatocellular injury, hyperglycemia and ketosis, neurologic illnesses, ocular symptoms, and dermatologic complications.

Gupta, A., Madhavan, M.V., Sehgal, K. et al. Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19. Nat Med (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0968-3

Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19

I do a fair amount of reading and research on this virus.  This review article is highly scientific and clinical.  If you choose to read this article I am not to blame if you never leave your house again for the next few years.

 

Saturday 07.11.20 – Covid-19 Research Project

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Black individuals at higher risk for contracting COVID-19

“Association of Black Race with Outcomes in COVID-19 Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study” is not the first to examine race. However, it provides further evidence that, while anyone can get COVID-19, race is indeed a factor in the extent to which some populations are affected. Of the 4413 individuals tested, 17.8 percent tested positive. Of those who tested positive, 78.9 percent were Black while 9.6 percent were White.

The original study article is open access and can be downloaded here.

It’s kind of geeky but I downloaded and read the study.  And I uncovered the following problems with this study:

Our study was limited by unavailable datapoints such as socioeconomic status, health insurance, comorbidities, and medication history, which could have enabled us to test the independent association of these outcomes with Black race, and fully assess potential confounders.

These issues are significant limitations.

Also, while most subjects in our cohort were from the greater Chicago area, the proportion of Blacks in our cohort (57.6%) substantially exceeds that of Chicago (30.1%) and the US (13.4%)

Race-wise not exactly a representative study cohort of the general population.

as access to care is generally lower for Blacks, these subjects are likely to be sicker and undergo testing at a higher threshold than Whites.

You should expect a higher percentage of Blacks testing positive if you’re testing more Blacks.

So while there may be an association of Black race with higher rates of Covid-19 infection I am unable to infer from this study that an actual higher risk exists.

Take Home Message for Life Underwriters:

These data suggest that Blacks are more likely to test positive and be hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2; however, we found no difference in mortality for Blacks vs non-Blacks.

No difference in mortality for Blacks vs non-Blacks.

Covid-19 is an equal opportunity killer.

Wear a mask.  Avoid the C’s.  Wash your hands often.

Florida Cx3

Trends in Nonfatal Falls and Fall-Related Injuries Among Adults Aged ≥65 Years — United States, 2012–2018

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What is already known about this topic?

Falls are the leading cause of injury among adults aged ≥65 years, who in 2014 experienced an estimated 29 million falls, resulting in 7 million fall-related injuries.

What is added by this report?

In 2018, 27.5% of adults aged ≥65 years reported at least one fall in the past year (35.6 million falls) and 10.2% reported a fall-related injury (8.4 million fall-related injuries). From 2012 to 2016, the percentages of these adults reporting a fall increased, and from 2016 to 2018, the percentages decreased.

Citation for this article: Moreland B, Kakara R, Henry A. Trends in Nonfatal Falls and Fall-Related Injuries Among Adults Aged ≥65 Years — United States, 2012–2018. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:875–881. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6927a5external icon.

Trouble in Arizona

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There is no country in the world where confirmed coronavirus cases are growing as rapidly as they are in Arizona, Florida or South Carolina. The Sun Belt has become the global virus capital.

This chart ranks the countries with the most confirmed new cases over the past week, adjusted for population size, and treats each U.S. state as if it were a country. (Many states are larger in both landmass and population than some countries.)

The only countries with outbreaks as severe as those across the Sunbelt are Bahrain, Oman and Qatar — three Middle Eastern countries with large numbers of low-wage migrant workers who are not citizens. These workers often live in cramped quarters, with subpar social services, and many have contracted the virus.

Source: NYT Morning daily email briefing

 

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Remember to avoid the 3 C’s.  And wear a mask.

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The Bloody Mask — RadaJonesMD

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My honeymoon with Thailand ended yesterday. We live in a condo in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Signs on every door warn: No Mask, No Entry. Most people comply. Some don’t. I ignore them unless they try to join me in the elevator. If they do, I wave them away. “Not without a mask, please.” …

Unlike many adopters of national mask policies, who value discipline and conformity, Americans hate being told what to do and feel the mask is an assault on their freedom. Unfortunately, that contributed to our high COVID numbers. Thailand – who had the first COVID case outside China –  had a total of 3185 cases, 58 deaths, and no community transmission in weeks. Compare that to the US numbers.  2.9 mil cases, 130K deaths and 58K new cases on July 3rd. Yes, Thailand has 70Mil people, while USA has 328 mil. Still.

via The bloody mask — RadaJonesMD

This article by Dr. Jones is worth reading in its entirety.

Mask up people!