Debt slaves

Scary Charts – 10.06.26

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The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) re-spiked in recent months and in September hit 12.2%, the second highest ever, behind only January 2026 (12.3%), and 1.5 percentage point above the worst moments of the Financial Crisis, according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

Source: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 12.2%, Far Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. End of Extend-and-Pretend Looms https://wolfstreet.com/2026/10/05/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-re-spikes-to-12-2-far-worse-than-financial-crisis-peak-as-end-of-extend-and-pretend-looms/

I was thinking about how bad the US economy really is behind the curtain.

I can’t believe the number of hockey stick charts I continue to find.

Scary Charts – 09.24.26

/ SupremeCmdr / 2 Comments

It’s as simple as this: as long-term interest rates continue moving higher, virtually every important piece of financial math gets worse, all at the same time.

The discount rate used to value stocks rises, which makes future earnings worth less today. Mortgages get more expensive. Corporate borrowing gets more expensive. Private equity deals and private credit…much of which is already FUBAR but not showing it yet…become harder to finance. Leveraged companies have to refinance debt at higher rates. Consumers pay more to borrow and the federal government pays more to service its enormous pile of debt.

Source: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/bonds-are-about-to-crash-the-stock?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Yikes.

The Dark Side of TikTok – Financial Advice?

/ SupremeCmdr / 3 Comments

The TikToker touting “generational wealth” isn’t alone in promoting the benefits of slapping a child’s name onto credit card debts. TikTok is flooded with influencers who insist that authorizing minors to use their parents or older relatives’ credit cards will set them up for a bright future.

Many of the videos uploaded to the platform are captioned with the hashtag #generationalwealth and suggest that the authorized credit card user trick is a secret hack used by the wealthy.

‘Generational wealth’ influencers are touting the benefits of parents adding their kids to credit card debt—but experts warn it could go badly wrong — https://fortune.com/2023/10/21/building-generational-wealth-parents-children-credit-card-debt/

Parents, don’t do this. TikTok should not be your source for financial advice.

Instead teach your children to save and invest, to live within their means, to understand the difference between needs and wants, to not become an indentured servant to the banking industry.

Scary Charts 05.06.20 — Auto Loans

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Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up, Get Very Messy

US-auto-loan-deliquencies-dollars-2020-q1

Delinquencies of auto loans to borrowers with prime credit ratings were near historic lows (0.27% in March), according to Fitch data. In the pre-Virus Good Times, it was the subprime loans – with credit scores below 620 – that were blowing up…

In mid-March, the world changed for subprime lenders. Delinquencies were already exploding in the Good Times, and now they’re in utter turmoil.

In addition, it is likely that prime loans are becoming delinquent as well, as many of these people too have lost their jobs – this includes dentists and other professionals with high incomes and big debts and lots of expenses and no savings, who’d suddenly had to close their operations, and their cash flow disappeared. If they fall behind on their debts, they’ll be subprime in a hurry.