Simple Investment Advice

I have some simple rules when it comes to staying out of trouble when investing:

Know what you own and why you own it.

If you don’t understand something, don’t invest in it.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

This is not exciting or sexy advice but successful investing is generally boring. Not Getting Rich Fast Enough – A Wealth of Common Sense — https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/06/not-getting-rich-fast-enough/

Ben Carlson is a smart man. His short list of unexciting, non-sexy and generally boring bits of investment advice inspired me to add my own generally boring bits of non solicited quasi-investment advice. And in no particular order of importance here they are.

  • Live beneath your means.
  • Pay yourself first (save, save, save some more).
  • Invest in your health (diet, exercise, etc).
  • Invest in your brain, be a lifelong learner.
  • Connect with family and friends (social media doesn’t count).
  • Find your purpose.
  • Work hard. Hard work is no guarantee of success but the lack of hard work guarantees failure.
  • A happy fulfilling life is more than just the money or your net worth.

Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers out there.

(Less Than) Random Thoughts on Retirement – The Dot Project June 2024

Again, you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

Steve Jobs

Save as Much as You Can Because Whatever You Manage to Save Will Never Be Enough – Random Thoughts on Retirement was the post that started the entire series of periodic Random Thoughts on Retirement. In More Random Thoughts on Retirement – Memorial Day 2024 I wrote about staying healthy as my primary goal in retirement.

Another Big Dot

Sometimes things in life work out as planned. Sometimes they don’t. This time the plan is going as planned. At my annual wellness check up everything turned out fine except for my blood pressure. The two readings taken showed an elevated systolic and per Doctor’s orders I had to buy a BP machine which set me back $36 plus tax. I was instructed to keep a log for two weeks. For grins, I checked my online account to see what Dr. Lewis wrote for the office visit notes. No mention whatsoever regarding my BP readings. Probably because both of us felt this wasn’t a huge problem. The Boss started showing some concern and I had to report my pressures to her every day. Again I felt this wasn’t a worrisome medical issue. Besides if the diagnosis was hypertension I was looking at daily Lisinopril 10 mg, no big deal.

After two weeks I sent Dr. Lewis my log. She replied later that day.

Thank you for diligently keeping track of your blood pressure readings. I see that your readings have been fairly consistent. Yes you can stop watching it. If you feel fatigued or headaches please recheck it.

Sincerely,
KL

I survived another annual wellness check. The Road to 70 is still pretty smooth. But the ride is not as smooth for others.

A CivicScience survey of nearly 3,000 respondents conducted between March and May 2024 reported 61% of those aged 55 and over say they won’t be able to retire by 65, and 53% will need to keep working even when they do retire. Boomers and Beyond: 5 Ways To Make Extra Money if You Retire in Your 70shttps://www.gobankingrates.com/retirement/planning/boomers-ways-make-extra-money-retire-70s/.

I admit to falling for the clickbait. Of course I wanted to know about 5 ways to make extra money if I retire in my 70’s. And I’m a Boomer. So I read the article. Here are the 5 ways to make extra money:

  1. Add Money to a High-Yield Savings Account
  2. Buy Dividend Stocks
  3. Rent Out Unused Space in Your Home
  4. Become a Dog Walker
  5. Become a Ride-Share Driver

What is the average monthly benefit for a retired worker? The estimated average monthly Social Security retirement benefit for January 2024 is $1,907. https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903

Hmm…

I wrote back in May that my focus was simple. All I had to do was stay healthy and stay connected with an employer willing to keep an Old Guy with a particular set of skills on the payroll. More Random Thoughts on Retirement – The Dot Project May 2024. At this point I hope to become a dog walker only if I want to, not if I have to. Prioritize your health. Save as much as you can. Plan on living AND working longer. Defer collecting Social Security retirement until you turn 70 (if you can). Read my other blog https://garyskitchen.net/. Tell your friends and family you found this blog written by an Old Guy on what it takes to become an Old Guy. They’ll love you for this.

Gut Bacteria May Drive Colorectal Cancer Risk

The researchers found signs that a high-fat, low-fiber diet may increase inflammation in the gut that prevents it from naturally suppressing tumors. The cells of young people with colorectal cancer also appeared to have aged more quickly — by 15 years on average — than a person’s actual age. That’s unusual, because older people with colorectal cancer don’t have the same boost in cellular aging.

The rate of colorectal cancer among young people has been rising at an alarming rate, according to a 2023 report from the American Cancer Society. In 2019, 1 in 5 colorectal cancer cases were among people younger than 55. That’s up from 1 in 10 in 1995, which means the rate has doubled in less than 30 years. Young People’s Gut Bacteria May Drive Colorectal Cancer Risk – Medscape – June 06, 2024 — https://www.medscape.com/s/viewarticle/young-peoples-gut-bacteria-may-drive-colorectal-cancer-risk-2024a1000amd?src=rss

Yikes.

More Random Thoughts on Retirement – Memorial Day 2024

JP Morgan data showing expectations vs. reality on the timing of retirement:

Source: When Life Forces Your Hand – https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/05/when-life-forces-your-hand/

Memorial Day 2024

The Boss once again is outside in the yard doing her thing. I’m inside doing my thing, drinking coffee, reading, writing. One of my addictions is staying current with the news and this post popped up in my RSS feed. At my age it doesn’t take much prompting for me to reflect on retirement. The Road to 70 is nearly complete. Soon I’ll be writing the next chapter of life The Road to 75. Dear Reader, if this sounds “old”, it is.

Critical thinking and understanding risk are the cornerstones of what I do. So when I have an opportunity to validate or repudiate the key assumptions in my plans I am in my Happy Place. When I decided not to retire several years ago my personal mantra focused on the following two critical variables in my retirement planning:

Stay healthy.

Find a willing employer.

Number One. I just had my annual wellness checkup. Bloodwork normal. Tendency towards obesity curtailed. Blood pressure elevated on two readings. Per Doctor’s orders I bought a BP machine and started keeping a log. All of my readings at home have been normal. A little white coat effect and the excitement of seeing my physician (Redhead Effect)…all good.

Number Two. Don’t underestimate how essential having or finding an employer who will pay you to work as you get older. Too many of us know the feeling of being cast out to the street for becoming too “old”.

As I prepare to write the next chapter it’s time to revisit and revise the two most important goals that got me to where I am. After some considerable time and effort here are my revised goals for the next five years.

Stay healthy.

Keep working for my current willing employer.

Happy Memorial Day.

Cannabis and Kids

Epidemiologic research suggests that cannabis use may be a significant risk factor for psychotic disorders. A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies estimated that lifetime cannabis users had an odds ratio of 2.58 (95% CI 1.08–6.13) for psychotic disorders compared to non-users (Moore et al., Reference Moore, Zammit, Lingford-Hughes, Barnes, Jones, Burke and Lewis2007). Another meta-analysis found an odds ratio of 3.90 (95% CI 2.84–5.34) for psychotic disorders among the most frequent cannabis users compared to non-users, suggesting dose–response (Marconi, Di Forti, Lewis, Murray, & Vassos, Reference Marconi, Di Forti, Lewis, Murray and Vassos2016). Whether cannabis use is causally related to psychotic disorders continues to be debated, with recent genetic studies raising uncertainty about the directionality of the relationship and the magnitude of association (Ganesh & D’Souza, Reference Ganesh and D’Souza2022; Gillespie & Kendler, Reference Gillespie and Kendler2021).

This study provides new evidence of a strong but age-dependent association between cannabis use and risk of psychotic disorder, consistent with the neurodevelopmental theory that adolescence is a vulnerable time to use cannabis. The strength of association during adolescence was notably greater than in previous studies, possibly reflecting the recent rise in cannabis potency. Age-dependent association of cannabis use with risk of psychotic disorder Psychological Medicine , First View , pp. 1 – 11 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291724000990

Daily Marijuana Use Now Exceeds Daily Alcohol Use

Reported cannabis use declined to a nadir in 1992, with partial recovery through 2008, and substantial increases since then, particularly for measures of more intensive use. Between 2008 and 2022, the per capita rate of reporting past-year use increased by 120%, and days of use reported per capita increased by 218% (in absolute terms from the annual equivalent of 2.3 to 8.1 billion days per year). From 1992 to 2022, there was a 15-fold increase in the per capita rate of reporting daily or near daily use. Whereas the 1992 survey recorded 10 times as many daily or near daily alcohol as cannabis users (8.9 vs. 0.9 M), the 2022 survey, for the first time, recorded more daily and near daily users of cannabis than alcohol (17.7 vs. 14.7 M). Far more people drink, but high-frequency drinking is less common. In 2022, the median drinker reported drinking on 4–5 days in the past month, versus 15–16 days in the past month for cannabis. In 2022, past-month cannabis consumers were almost four times as likely to report daily or near daily use (42.3% vs. 10.9%) and 7.4 times more likely to report daily use (28.2% vs. 3.8%).

Long-term trends in cannabis use in the United States parallel corresponding changes in cannabis policy, with declines during periods of greater restriction and growth during periods of policy liberalization. A growing share of cannabis consumers report daily or near daily use, and their numbers now exceed the number of daily and near daily drinkers. Changes in self-reported cannabis use in the United States from 1979 to 2022https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16519

Scary Charts 05.16.24

After the collapse of a Surfside Building on June 24, 2021 that killed 98 people, the state passed a structural safety law that is now biting owners. Not only are insurance rates soaring, but owners are hit with huge special assessments topping $100,000. Florida Condo Owners Dump Units Over Six-Figure Special Assessmentshttps://mishtalk.com/economics/florida-condo-owners-dump-units-over-six-figure-special-assessments/

Ouch.

Fentanyl Facts

In 2022, according to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), close to 83,000 people died from opioid overdoses in the United States, the majority from fentanyl and other highly potent synthetic substances. A Yale Medicine addiction medicine specialist discusses how the synthetic opioid became a problemhttps://www.yalemedicine.org/news/fentanyl-driving-overdoses

Meanwhile in Oklahoma…

Go here https://facingfentanylnow.org/fentanyl-facts/ for the facts.

More Random Thoughts on Retirement – The Dot Project May 2024

Again, you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

Steve Jobs

Let’s be honest: If you keeled over at 68, it would be a family tragedy—but it wouldn’t be a financial one. At that juncture, all your financial problems would be over, and your family would likely be better off financially because they’d inherit your retirement nest egg, which would probably still be largely intact. Instead, the real financial risk is living to a ripe old age. That raises the question: As you make your retirement plans, shouldn’t you care more about the live version of your future self, rather than the dead one?

Long Oddshttps://humbledollar.com/2024/05/long-odds/

When I wrote Save as Much as You Can Because Whatever You Manage to Save Will Never Be Enough – Random Thoughts on Retirement I started thinking more about the financial side of living too long. Well, it looks like a ton of media outlets are thinking the same thoughts.

Today’s life expectancies hover just below eighty, and if you reach the milestone of seventy they jump to the mid eighties. Due to advances in medicine and healthier lifestyles, reaching your nineties or even 100 is more realistic than ever. How do you ensure that you don’t run out of money? The answer is to start saving more now and plan to work longer. You’re Going to Live Past 90. Congrats! Here’s How to Pay For It.https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a60647995/how-to-afford-living-to-100/

A Big Dot

A little over four and a half years ago at the tender age of 65 my boss asked me if I was planning on retiring or if I wanted to continue working. I said I wanted to continue working. My FRA (full retirement age) for social security retirement benefits was still nearly a year away and I really didn’t want to collect a reduced benefit. As I connect the dots this decision turned out to be a Big Dot. Covid happened. Then inflation soared and continues to soar making everything cost more. I’m glad I didn’t retire back then and lock in a lower monthly lifetime benefit before the cost of everything went up.

Sometimes things in life work out as planned. Sometimes they don’t. When I decided to stay in the workforce the strategy was to wait until age 70 to collect social security benefits. The math was compelling.

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/delayret.html

My focus was simple. All I had to do was stay healthy and stay connected with an employer willing to keep an Old Guy with a particular set of skills on the payroll.

My particular set of skills is understanding what kills people.

The Road to 70 is now just a short trip. Just 10% of people in one survey planned to wait until age 70 to claim Social Security – https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/survey-just-10percent-plan-to-wait-until-age-70-to-claim-social-security.html. Time for another Big Dot related to this Big Dot. I think I’ll keep working for another 3-5 years, contingent upon the same variables of sustained good health and a willing employer. I have about another 30 years to go, so why not do a few more years of work?