ICYMI

U.S. Election Discussion Thread — Climate Etc.

/ SupremeCmdr / 2 Comments

by Judith Curry No words. The only thing crazier than the U.S. election is this morning’s hurricane forecast. I have no words re the election.  For a diversion, here is my hurricane forecast for Eta. Summary:  current: TERRIBLE.  forecast: CRAZY Latest from NHC (7 am EST): 145 mph max sustained winds, min pressure 936 mb, […]

U.S. election discussion thread — Climate Etc.

I am re-posting this article by Judith Curry. Yes, the headline is somewhat misleading but I’m glad I clicked and read her post. There’s another hurricane coming.

Admit it. We all need a diversion from the election.

There’s Nothing “Radical” About This WFH Plan

/ SupremeCmdr / 3 Comments

This is the latest in a series of major companies having made similar announcements, including Microsoft. But Synchrony’s proposal appears to be more radical in that it:

Allows all its US employees to work from home permanently.

Requires some employees to work from home all the time with no access to an office.

Requires all employees to work from home at least some of the time.

Requires even management with “assigned seats” to work from home at least 1-2 days a week.

In a memo to employees, reported by Bloomberg today, CEO Keane and Synchrony President Brian Doubles explained that Synchrony will have three types of offices:

Virtual offices: employees will work from home permanently, and there is no office they can go to.

Hoteling offices: employees work at home permanently, but if they need to, can book a desk at a nearby office location.

Hybrid offices: employees can work from home but they have an assigned seat at a nearby office where they can work at least three days a week.

Synchrony Financial Disclosed Radical Work-from-Home Plan, Layoffs, and “Office Footprint” Reduction — https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/20/consumer-finance-giant-synchrony-disclosed-radical-permanent-work-from-home-plan/

I have been a WFH (work from home) warrior since 2006. There is absolutely nothing radical about the plan outlined above. I’ve been patiently waiting all these years for the business world to come around to my way of thinking. To be be clear, a lot of businesses would not adopt WFH without a nasty virus driving the agenda.

Too bad I’m currently a W2 worker. If I was still consulting I would make a MINT advising companies how to do the WFH thing effectively.

And what not to do when you’re on a Zoom call.

The Sturgis Motorcycle Event and the Death of Common Sense

/ SupremeCmdr / 9 Comments

South Dakota, which had the most attendees, saw coronavirus cases surge within weeks of the rally’s Aug. 16 close, with the seven-day rolling average going from 84 on Aug. 6 to 214 on Aug. 27. The numbers remained elevated into October: The first day of the month, the seven-day rolling average was 434. The state is second in the nation in cases per capita behind North Dakota, with numbers high enough for the Harvard Global Health Institute to recommend stay-at-home orders.

How the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have spread coronavirus across the Upper Midwest — https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ — downloaded 10.18.20

OD Deaths Involving Cocaine On The Rise

/ SupremeCmdr / 1 Comment

The rate of drug overdose deaths involving cocaine was stable between 2009 and 2013, then nearly tripled from 1.6 per 100,000 in 2013 to 4.5 in 2018.

NCHS Data Brief No. 384, October 2020 — https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db384.htm

Memo to all of my friends in the mortality risk business:

With so much attention being paid to Covid-19 it’s easy to forget people die from other causes. Don’t forget this.

Spain – a Squatter’s Paradise

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For many people, squatting is a desperate last resort, while for some it is a lifestyle choice or a political statement. Barcelona, which is ground zero of Spain’s squatting phenomenon, attracts squatters from all over Europe. In recent years, more and more young locals — including many with jobs — who have been priced out of the rental market or who simply don’t want to pay the inflated rents have also turned to squatting.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/09/12/how-spain-became-a-squatters-paradise/

If you live in a part of the world that is blessed with a year round moderate climate this phenomenon is coming to your town.

Meanwhile in Argentina…

In Argentina, they have gone beyond just squatting. Lands with no buildings on them are being occupied, houses build on them and people moves there, sometimes in just a few weeks. Once the illegal houses are occupied getting the people out and the houses destroyed is not easy. That already was a problem before quarantine but during quarantine? It has got a lot worse. And of course there is squatting too.

Reader comment on the arttcle

How Dean Vagnozzi’s Clients Lost Bets On The Dead

/ SupremeCmdr / 2 Comments

Since financial adviser Dean Vagnozzi was charged with fraud in a government lawsuit in July, he has been castigated by regulators for how he steered customers to Par Funding, a Philadelphia lender founded by a twice-convicted felon. With his heavy radio advertising and free steak sales dinners, Vagnozzi, 51, touted alternatives to Wall Street.

Source: How Dean Vagnozzi’s Clients Lost Bets On The Dead

Actually the title to the original article is misleading.

Don’t bet on people dying to make your profits. Unfortunately some people do just that.

Life Partners founder Brian Pardo lived well in Waco, Texas, for a time. Pardo bought four planes and a yacht along with such artifacts as replicas of an ancient Egyptian sarcophagus and a pharaoh’s throne. His business eventually sold $2.4 billion in policies to 20,000 investors.

But in 2010 the Wall Street Journal reported that Pardo’s firm was relying heavily on an assembly-line doctor who was systematically under-predicting life expectancies. Life Partners’ sellers were living a lot longer than predicted — very good for them but hard on investors paying years of premiums without collecting death benefits,

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/how-clients-of-an-advisor-facing-fraud-complaint-lost-bets-on-the-dead?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-clients-of-an-advisor-facing-fraud-complaint-lost-bets-on-the-dead#

I’ve never been a fan of the life settlement business.

Never accept one of those free steak dinner offers.

“I slept on the floor, and woke up to ants crawling on my bed.”

/ SupremeCmdr / 3 Comments

Gaughan reported the room had dirt on the bed and on the ground, as well as an unclean sink and curtains. When she asked the hall coordinators why the room was in that condition, they said they had not anticipated anyone contracting COVID-19 within the first move-in day, so the rooms were not prepared, and spoke to her with indifference, she said.

Gaughan said she felt uncomfortable when she said she reported she was told she could not tell her parents that she tested positive for COVID-19, as it would cause “unnecessary chaos”. She added that the resident assistant informed her that he was told that none of the individuals herself and her roommate had come into contact with would be quarantined or notified of her testing positive.

‘I felt like a guinea pig’: student’s ‘awful’ quarantine experience prompts UI apology — https://dailyiowan.com/2020/08/20/i-felt-like-a-guinea-pig-students-awful-quarantine-experience-prompts-university-of-iowa-apology/

Colleges and universities are seemingly ill-prepared to deal with Covid-19 outbreaks on campuses. One commentator on this story wrote “they don’t care about students only their institutional survival” which is an opinion I share. Schools had months to prepare for reopening for the fall semester. From the stories I’ve read most institutions get an F in Infectious Diseases 101. Read this entire story yourself. Here are the points I gleaned from this story:

Poor planning from bad assumptions.

Bad assumptions led to poor judgment.

Poor judgment resulted in poor decisions.

Zero contact tracing (don’t tell your parents and we won’t tell anyone you’ve been in contact with).

Apologize because an apology for your ineptitude solves everything.

Apologize (but keep their money). College Clusterfuck 2.0 – “It’s a Dystopian Hell” – Updated.

Oh…I almost forgot. Blame the kids and take no responsibility.

In an email from Assistant Dean and Director of Student Accountability Angela Ibrahim-Olin, the University of Iowa reiterated that students can held accountable for off-campus behavior.

Off-campus behavior may lead to suspensions or cancellations of housing contracts — https://dailyiowan.com/2020/08/25/off-campus-behavior-may-lead-to-suspensions-or-cancellations-of-housing-contracts/