How Not To Invest – A Lesson From The University of Chicago

CRSP’s origins date back to the 1960s. Its initial goal was to build a database of historical stock prices. This is harder than it might seem. Before trading was computerized, stock prices were maintained on paper. And when stocks split or companies merged, that added to the complexity.

Despite this seemingly dull mandate, CRSP has played an important role in the development of modern finance over the years. Most notably, the efficient market hypothesis and the capital asset pricing model were both made possible by CRSP data. And today, many of the world’s largest index funds, including Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Fund, are built on CRSP indexes. Endowment Lessons https://humbledollar.com/2026/02/endowment-lessons/

This article by Adam M. Grossman uses the University of Chicago’s financial struggles as a cautionary tale for individual investors.

Key Lessons for Individual Investors

  • Spending: Avoid “Keeping Up with the Joneses”
    • The university invested heavily in new buildings and programs to maintain its “eminence” without securing corresponding revenue.
    • Takeaway: Financial success depends on income exceeding expenses. Operating costs of new assets (like large homes or complex projects) must be planned for in advance.
  • Saving: Beware of Recency Bias
    • During a 15-year market boom, the university ramped up debt rather than stockpiling resources.
    • Takeaway: Investors often falsely assume current trends will continue forever. Use periods of market strength to re-balance portfolios and manage risk rather than increasing lifestyle or debt commitments.
  • Investing: Complexity vs. Simplicity
    • Performance: UChicago’s endowment returned 6.7% annually over 10 years, trailing a simple Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX), which returned 8.2%.
    • Liquidity: The university locked over 60% of its funds into illiquid assets like private equity and real estate, making it difficult to cover cash flow needs.
    • Takeaway: High-fee, complex, and illiquid investments often under-perform simple index funds. If elite institutions with dedicated investment offices “are having second thoughts” about private equity, the message for individual investors seems clear.

This summary was produced by Gemini AI and edited by yours truly.

Here’s a link to an article on the sale of CRSP. Morningstar Completes Acquisition of CRSP and Extends Relationship with Vanguard https://newsroom.morningstar.com/news/news-details/2026/Morningstar-Completes-Acquisition-of-CRSP-and-Extends-Relationship-with-Vanguard/default.aspx

High Altitude and Diabetes Risk (in mice)

In findings published in Cell Metabolism, the team demonstrated that red blood cells can alter their metabolism when oxygen levels drop. This shift allows the cells to deliver oxygen to tissues more efficiently at high altitude. At the same time, it lowers circulating blood sugar, offering a potential explanation for reduced diabetes risk. Gladstone Institutes. “Scientists discover why high altitude protects against diabetes.” ScienceDaily https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260221060952.htm (accessed February 21, 2026).

Journal Reference:

  1. Yolanda Martí-Mateos, Zohreh Safari, Shaun Bevers, Ayush D. Midha, Will R. Flanigan, Tej Joshi, Helen Huynh, Brandon R. Desousa, Skyler Y. Blume, Alan H. Baik, Stephen Rogers, Aaron V. Issaian, Allan Doctor, Angelo D’Alessandro, Isha H. Jain. Red blood cells serve as a primary glucose sink to improve glucose tolerance at altitude. Cell Metabolism, 2026; DOI: 10.1016/j.cmet.2026.01.019

The Edge

My takeaways:

The first takeaway is about the mindset. Winning requires staying in the present. When you lose nearly half the points you play, the past offers no help. Dwelling on past mistakes only distracts from the real goal, which is to win the match. We cannot change what has happened, and we cannot control what comes next. Stay present, follow the process, and let the result take care of itself…The idea of edge applies directly to our lives. Life is made up of thousands of decisions taken over decades. A small edge in how we make those decisions quietly stacks the odds in our favor.

Take health. Lifting weights a few times a week, walking a few miles a day, eating reasonably well, and sleeping enough each give us a small edge. We are not competing with anyone else here. We are competing against chronic diseases. These habits do not guarantee outcomes, but they help us avoid most of the problems that are within our control, and leave the rest to chance. None of these decisions matter much on their own. Taken together over years they matter a lot.

Nice article, wonderful insights. Now go read the entire article.

Keep Moving

Physical activity consistently emerges as the most important factor influencing both absolute physical capacity and the rate of age-related decline. Our longitudinal data are consistent with previous studies showing that regular physical activity can attenuate the decline in physical performance [17, 3237]. Individuals who were physically active in their leisure time at age 16 maintained higher aerobic capacity, muscular endurance and muscle power throughout the observation period. This emphasizes the importance of early intervention to establish positive exercise habits in adolescence and early adulthood, as these patterns appear to have long-term benefits for physical function. Encouragingly, our results show that transitioning from physical inactivity to activity at any age significantly improves performance in all fitness modalities studied. These findings contradict the assumption that early inactivity irreversibly impairs physical performance. Rather, taking up regular physical activity leads to measurable improvements in performance even in later decades of life. This finding is of particular importance for clinical practice, as physical activity is still the only evidence-based intervention to reduce the risk of sarcopenia [2, 38]. Recent large population studies also show that an active lifestyle is beneficial at any age [13, 39, 40]. Rise and Fall of Physical Capacity in a General Population: A 47-Year Longitudinal Studyhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jcsm.70134

Text above in bold are my highlights.

Despite the documented limitations this is a very strong study.

I’ve been doing my home based virtual physical therapy for nearly a year. I’m trying to get to the gym at least twice a week. I don’t walk as much as I used to but…

Keep moving.

Random Thoughts on Unretirement – 01.10.26

“We have to understand that anything in the past takes you out of the present moment. Anything in the future takes you out of the present moment.”

Zen Master Daigneault

To readers who are visiting this blog for the first time my posts on Random Thoughts About Retirement and Unretirement are written by an Old Guy who is old enough to be retired but isn’t retired and is still working. I had another birthday and the older I get the more I think about retirement. Back in 2023 I was thinking about what retirement for me would look like (see More Random Thoughts on Retirement – June 2023). But decisions such as this take serious thought and consideration. At first I thought I wanted to retire to a quiet life of blogging and writing my Future Best Seller titled The Man Who Had No Hobbies. After much thought I decided to add a short term goal to my retirement plan. My new short term goal is to avoid unretirement.

My RSS feed feeds me headlines on unretirement.

According to a new report from T. Rowe Price around 7% of retirees are looking for work in retirement, while 20% say they’re already working part time or full time…The two main reasons for coming back into the workforce are a tale of opposites. While 45% chose to work for social and emotional benefits… a slightly larger percentage — 48% — felt they needed to work for financial reasons.

Unretiring: More retirees are going back to work because they want to — or need to — https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unretiring-more-retirees-are-going-back-to-work-because-they-want-to–or-need-to-123203300.html

And this.

Once an eagerly awaited milestone, retirement is currently undergoing a transformative reevaluation. Traditionally seen as a well-deserved period of rest and relaxation, the dream of early retirement is now being challenged by a new perspective – that of embracing lifelong work. This paradigm shift reflects the changing nature of work, increased life expectancy, and the desire for personal fulfillment.

Rethinking Retirement: The Case for Embracing Lifelong Work — https://due.com/rethinking-retirement-the-case-for-embracing-lifelong-work/

The reality is many won’t have a choice. The following chart illustrates retirement savings as of 2019.

Americans are having trouble financially preparing themselves for life after work. A recent Federal Reserve report found that nearly a quarter of U.S. adults have absolutely no retirement savings or pension. Even though the level of preparation increases as people get older, concern about inadequate savings is still readily apparent across all age groups, even older people in their 60s.

A Quarter Of Americans Have No Retirement Savings — https://www.statista.com/chart/18246/share-of-americans-who-have-no-retirement-savings/

OOPS. I’m glad I didn’t click the Publish button. The savings situation appears to be worse than I thought. The study below was an analysis of data from 2010!

The study broadly examines how American households are faring in relation to retirement savings targets recommended by some financial services firms. It uses the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze retirement plan participation, savings, and overall assets of all U.S. households age 25 to 64, not just those with retirement account assets. This is important because some 45 percent, or 38 million working-age households, do not have any retirement account assets.

The average working household has virtually no retirement savings. When all households are included— not just households with retirement accounts—the median retirement account balance is $3,000 for all working-age households and $12,000 for near-retirement households. Two-thirds of working households age 55-64 with at least one earner have retirement savings less than one times their annual income, which is far below what they will need to maintain their standard of living in retirement.

The findings confirm that the American Dream of retiring comfortably after a lifetime of work will be impossible for many. Based on 401(k)–type account and IRA balances alone, some 92 percent of working households do not meet conservative retirement savings targets for their age and income. Even when counting their entire net worth, 65 percent still fall short.

The Retirement Savings Crisis: Is It Worse Than We Think? — https://www.nirsonline.org/reports/the-retirement-savings-crisis-is-it-worse-than-we-think/

So how will you afford retirement without any savings? Don’t look to Social Security. Here’s some numbers on average Social Security payments. The full chart at the source website goes up to age 100.

As of December 31, 2021, the average Social Security payment for all retirees was $1,658.03 a month, according to the Social Security Administration’s Annual Statistical Supplement for 2022. For men, the overall average was $1,838.08. For women, the average was $1,483.75 — a difference of $354.33 per month.

Here’s the Average Social Security Check for Men vs. Women — https://www.gobankingrates.com/retirement/social-security/average-social-security-check-men-women/

I’ve previously advised everyone to Save as Much as You Can Because Whatever You Manage to Save Will Never Be Enough – Random Thoughts on Retirement. Now here’s my second piece of sage advice: keep working so you don’t have to unretire.

Whether people unretire or simply stay in the workforce longer, some of the largest financial benefits of additional years of work are delaying retirement account withdrawals and delaying claiming Social Security benefits. These actions essentially shorten the amount of time your assets will need to support you in retirement. Even a few additional years of income have a positive effect on the probability that you won’t outlive your funds.

“Unretiring”: Why Recent Retirees Want to Go Back to Work — https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/unretiring-why-recent-retirees-want-to-go-back-to-work.html

Whew. Long post. Longer than I anticipated. If you made it this far, congratulations!

Double OOPS. Hit the publish button too soon. Postscript.

Economic Satisfaction Declines With Agehttps://www.statista.com/chart/35656/us-respondents-who-view-their-financial-situation-positively/

Note the survey respondents’ age stops at 64.

Random Thoughts on Retirement (or why I continue to work)

Congress needs to get serious about tweaking various aspects of Social Security, but this time to improve the financial aspects of the system, and not to make them worse, as it had done in January.Social Security Fiscal Year 2025: Trust Fund Balance, Income, Outgo, Deficit, and Interest Rates https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/18/social-security-fiscal-year-2025-trust-fund-balance-income-outgo-deficit-and-interest-rates/

The Boss (SWMBO) and I talk about this often. Once the W2 income stops and we have to rely upon a small corporate pension, savings, and a shaky Social Security promise we’ll have to get conservative on our spending. No more Stratocasters. Less purchases for wardrobe enhancements. Gas station beer instead of craft brews.

Time will tell.

SWMBO – She Who Must Be Obeyed

Yikes.

Remote Work – Not The Norm

Nearly One in Five Americans Works From Home Regularlyhttps://www.statista.com/chart/35389/regular-remote-and-home-office-work/

I started writing my journal in 2005. One of the best things about keeping a journal is the ability to verify if memories from the past are accurate or the made up, mashups your brain creates as memories. Here’s my entry on Monday July 24 2006:

A 4:00 PM meeting with the Division head with an HR rep present is never a good thing. I immediately thought to myself:

“This is gonna suck.”

And it did, big time. I got whacked today.

And that’s how my WFH life began. When my work from home situation arises in conversation most are surprised to learn I’ve been WFH this long. I’m surprised how long I’ve been working from home!

I am convinced due to having a low stress working environment, better diet (NO office snacks/free food/lunches out), no commute, along with a host of other variables I just might be increasing my lifespan. I do know I get plenty of sleep on a regular routine basis.

Short sleep duration (< 7 h per night) was associated with a 14% increase in mortality risk compared to the reference of 7–8 h, with a pooled hazard ratio of 1.14 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.18). Conversely, long sleep duration (≥ 9 h per night) was associated with a 34% higher risk of mortality, with a hazard ratio of 1.34 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.42). Sex-specific analyses indicated that both short and long sleep durations significantly elevated mortality risk in men and women, although the effect was more pronounced for long sleep duration in women. Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased all-cause mortality, though the degree of risk varies by sex. Imbalanced sleep increases mortality risk by 14–34%: a meta-analysis – Ungvari, Z., Fekete, M., Varga, P. et al. Imbalanced sleep increases mortality risk by 14–34%: a meta-analysis. GeroScience 47, 4545–4566 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11357-025-01592-y

Concerning Trends in Retirement – More Less Than Random Thoughts

  • Lack of sufficient savings
  • Inflationary pressures
  • Rising credit card debt
  • Half of respondents said they had saved less than what was needed for retirement.
  • When we asked an open-ended question about why they rated their satisfaction with retired life as they did, inflation was a major reason.

The ‘Concerning Trends’ in Retirement Now https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/concerning-trends-in-retirement-now

I’ve decided not to retire. Wait, let me clarify my statement.

I’ve not changed my mind about my decision not to retire five years ago.

I love double negative sentences.

 Fewer than twenty percent of older people worldwide enjoy a retirement pension that is enough for them to live off. Although countries like China and India are now also developing their pension systems, the prospect of most older people receiving pensions totaling 60 to 70% of their final salaries remains a long way off.

The invention of retirementhttps://www.swisslife.com/en/home/blog/interview-matthieu-leimgruber.html

The majority of our friends are retired. I’m always asked when I’m going to retire. My quick answer was always “Don’t know”. I’ve since modified my response to “Two to four years”. This has been my answer for the past two years. Might still be my answer next year too.

https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/the-90-rule-of-retirement-live-long-and-prosper

Nearly 40% of Americans ages 55 and older were employed in 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — a striking shift that’s even more dramatic when you look at the oldest workers. Today, 2.8 million men over 70 are working in the U.S. — part of an extraordinary long-term transformation in which employment among Americans 75 and older has quadrupled since 1964. More Americans are ‘unretiring’: 5 money factors to weigh before joining themhttps://www.aol.com/finance/retirement-planning/article/unretiring-is-trending-5-money-factors-you-should-consider-first-153926242.html

I think I’ll retire in two to four years.

Scary Charts – 09.13.25

Interestingly, older workers (65+) earn around $3,000 more than those in the 25 to 34 bracket, reflecting a group of late-career professionals who continue to command strong wages. Charted: Median U.S. Salaries by Age Group https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-median-u-s-salaries-by-age-group/

Late-career professional. There seem to be a lot more of us now.

Three in four workers (75 percent) plan to work for pay in retirement, compared with just 29 percent of retirees who report they have actually worked for pay in retirement. In fact, the RCS has consistently found that workers are far more likely to plan to work for pay in retirement than retirees are to have actually done so. 2025 Retirement Confidence Surveyhttps://www.ebri.org/retirement/retirement-confidence-survey

But if you’re working for pay in retirement how can this be considered retirement?

Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/trump-tariffs-grocery-prices-rise-cpi

FYI, the BLS statistics are BS. Real world eyeball prices at the market tell me so.

Like coffee. Coffee prices in the US has surged more than 20% in the last year.

US coffee prices surge as tariffs take effecthttps://www.semafor.com/article/09/12/2025/us-coffee-prices-surge-as-tariffs-take-effect

Ooh…not just coffee.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2025 — in one charthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/inflation-breakdown-for-august-2025.html

I guess I’ll keep working in “retirement”.