Lifelong Learning

My Friday Reads – 09.20.24

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There’s another form of the Nobel Prize, called the Ig Nobel Prize. Don’t confuse this with the actual Nobel prizes. The Ig Nobels recognize scientific discoveries that “make people laugh, then think”.

‘The data on extreme human ageing is rotten from the inside out’ – Ig Nobel winner Saul Justin Newman – https://theconversation.com/the-data-on-extreme-human-ageing-is-rotten-from-the-inside-out-ig-nobel-winner-saul-justin-newman-239023

I started getting interested in this topic when I debunked a couple of papers in Nature and Science about extreme ageing in the 2010s. In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don’t stack up. I’ve tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can’t meaningfully analyze). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the US there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.

The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They’re the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on.

Coffee prices are set to soar due to drought in this country

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, Almeida and other farmers have started grappling with the nation’s worst drought in more than seven decades and above-average temperatures. Almeida expected to harvest 120 sacks of coffee beans this harvest season, but instead managed just 100…At the same time, Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer, is experiencing heat and drought, affecting its crops. Potential supply shortages in both countries have started driving up global coffee prices, according to the report.

“The patient requires coffee in the morning to function.” actual medical record entry from a case I worked on yesterday. Well, me too. My ability to function in the morning is going to cost more.

Does anyone remember Three Mile Island? I do. Looks like this nuclear plant may reopen.

Re-opened Three Mile Island will power AI data centers under new deal – https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/09/re-opened-three-mile-island-will-power-ai-data-centers-under-new-deal/#p3

Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island plant rose to infamy in 1979 when a partial meltdown in Unit 2 helped ignite panic over nuclear safety across the country. The new Microsoft deal would re-open the adjacent Unit 1, which was shuttered in 2019 “due to poor economics,” according to Constellation. If and when the plant reaches its planned 2028 re-opening, it would be among the first wave of shuttered nuclear plants being put back into service.

Yes, Microsoft! Might as well end this post with another Microsoft story.

Microsoft releases a new Windows app called Windows App for running Windows apps – https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/09/microsoft-releases-a-new-windows-app-called-windows-app-for-running-windows-apps/

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Going Green – Update 08.23.24

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A quick rundown: First, in the middle of the month, news broke that Superpedestrian was shutting down just 18 months after raising $125 million in fresh funding. A few days later, Micromobility.com, formerly known as Helbiz, was delisted from Nasdaq for failing to maintain a share price above $1. Then came the biggest shockwave of all: Bird, the largest e-scooter company in the U.S. with a one-time valuation of $2.5 billion, filed for bankruptcy.

E-scooter companies are going bankrupt. That should alarm you even if you hate them —https://www.fastcompany.com/91005446/e-scooter-companies-are-going-bankrupt-that-should-alarm-you-even-if-you-hate-them

TBH I never understood this e-scooter thing from the very beginning.

Maybe I’m too risk adverse.

UCLA-led research finds that scooter injuries nearly tripled across the U.S. from 2016 to 2020, with a concurrent increase in severe injuries requiring orthopedic and plastic surgery over the same period.

The study, which compared national trends in scooter and bicycle injuries during the period, also found that costs to treat those injuries rose five-fold, highlighting the financial strain these injuries pose to the healthcare system — a finding that “underscores a critical juncture for discerning the underlying causes of injuries and informing policies for injury prevention,” the researchers note.

University of California – Los Angeles Health Sciences. “Hospitalizations for scooter injuries nearly tripled in the US between 2016 and 2020, UCLA-led research finds.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 9 January 2024 — https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/01/240109121215.htm

Turkey’s Koc Holding said it revoked an agreement with Ford Motor and South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution for a joint venture to produce battery cells for commercial electric vehicles…LGES said the three companies had mutually agreed to scrap the plan due to the current pace of consumer electrification adoption.

Ford’s joint battery cell plant in Turkey is scrapped — https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-battery-plant-turkey-dropped-slow-ev-adoption

At the end of Q3 2023, Hertz told investors that significant price cutting during the year had “resulted in lower EV residual values, increasing vehicle depreciation expense and negatively impacting salvage cost.” Additionally, its rental EVs were damaged or crashed more often, and the much higher cost of repairs for Tesla vehicles—on average about 20 percent higher than other EVs—has meant that Hertz’s Teslas earn it less money per vehicle than its other rentals.

Consequently, it’s selling off 20,000 EVs over the course of this year. Currently, the company has over 700 EVs for sale, including 35 Chevrolet Bolts, four Kia EV6s, a single BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf, and then 673 Teslas—552 Model 3s and another 121 Model Ys.

Hertz is selling 20,000 used EVs due to high repair costs — https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/01/hertz-is-selling-20000-used-evs-due-to-high-repair-costs/

There is a reason for such unusually rapid depreciation. It is precisely because the device is in need of a new battery – and the cost of that battery is (in this case) in the range of $13,000-plus. Not counting the cost of the installation.

Don’t Buy a Used EV — https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2024/01/12/dont-buy-a-used-ev/

In Indonesia, nickel extraction is causing environmental and social devastation.

The dirty road to clean energy: How China’s electric vehicle boom is ravaging the environment — https://restofworld.org/2022/indonesia-china-ev-nickel/

Over the past few years, as Tesla built out its gigafactory near Berlin, it cut down around half a million trees.Kayrros, a company that analyzes satellite images using AI, made the calculation. Tesla cleared around 813 acres of forest between March 2020 and May 2023, according to the analysis. Tesla cut down 500,000 trees to build its German gigafactory

So going green is good?

Just 2-4 Cups of Fruits and Veggies Does What?

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Lowers blood pressure, improves kidney health, improves CVD risk factors.

In a randomized control trial over a five-year period, investigators divided the cohort of 153 patients with hypertension into three groups:

  1. Study participants adding 2-4 cups of base-producing fruits and vegetables in addition to their usual daily food intake
  2. Study participants prescribed NaHCO3 (acid-reducing sodium bicarbonate, which is common baking soda) tablets in two daily doses of 4-5 650 mg tablets
  3. Study participants receiving standard medical care from primary care clinicians

The results of the study show that both fruits and vegetables and NaHCO3 improved kidney health, but only fruits and vegetables, and not NaHCO3, reduced blood pressure and improved indices of cardiovascular disease risk.

The trial supports fruits and vegetables as foundational hypertension treatment to reduce chronic kidney disease progression and cardiovascular disease risk.

Elsevier. “Eating more fruits and vegetables to reduce dietary acid lowers blood pressure and improves kidney and heart health in patients with hypertension.” ScienceDaily. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/08/240806131316.htm (accessed August 11, 2024).

Journal Reference:

  1. Nimrit Goraya, Nicolaos E. Madias, Jan Simoni, Maninder Kahlon, Nazan Aksan, Donald E. Wesson. Kidney and Cardiovascular Protection Using Dietary Acid Reduction in Primary Hypertension: A Five-Year, Interventional, Randomized, Control Trial. The American Journal of Medicine, 2024; DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2024.06.006

I had two cups of fruit in my breakfast bowl this morning.

What did you eat for breakfast?

Simple Investment Advice

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I have some simple rules when it comes to staying out of trouble when investing:

Know what you own and why you own it.

If you don’t understand something, don’t invest in it.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

This is not exciting or sexy advice but successful investing is generally boring. Not Getting Rich Fast Enough – A Wealth of Common Sense — https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/06/not-getting-rich-fast-enough/

Ben Carlson is a smart man. His short list of unexciting, non-sexy and generally boring bits of investment advice inspired me to add my own generally boring bits of non solicited quasi-investment advice. And in no particular order of importance here they are.

  • Live beneath your means.
  • Pay yourself first (save, save, save some more).
  • Invest in your health (diet, exercise, etc).
  • Invest in your brain, be a lifelong learner.
  • Connect with family and friends (social media doesn’t count).
  • Find your purpose.
  • Work hard. Hard work is no guarantee of success but the lack of hard work guarantees failure.
  • A happy fulfilling life is more than just the money or your net worth.

Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers out there.

More Random Thoughts on Retirement – Memorial Day 2024

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JP Morgan data showing expectations vs. reality on the timing of retirement:

Source: When Life Forces Your Hand – https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/05/when-life-forces-your-hand/

Memorial Day 2024

The Boss once again is outside in the yard doing her thing. I’m inside doing my thing, drinking coffee, reading, writing. One of my addictions is staying current with the news and this post popped up in my RSS feed. At my age it doesn’t take much prompting for me to reflect on retirement. The Road to 70 is nearly complete. Soon I’ll be writing the next chapter of life The Road to 75. Dear Reader, if this sounds “old”, it is.

Critical thinking and understanding risk are the cornerstones of what I do. So when I have an opportunity to validate or repudiate the key assumptions in my plans I am in my Happy Place. When I decided not to retire several years ago my personal mantra focused on the following two critical variables in my retirement planning:

Stay healthy.

Find a willing employer.

Number One. I just had my annual wellness checkup. Bloodwork normal. Tendency towards obesity curtailed. Blood pressure elevated on two readings. Per Doctor’s orders I bought a BP machine and started keeping a log. All of my readings at home have been normal. A little white coat effect and the excitement of seeing my physician (Redhead Effect)…all good.

Number Two. Don’t underestimate how essential having or finding an employer who will pay you to work as you get older. Too many of us know the feeling of being cast out to the street for becoming too “old”.

As I prepare to write the next chapter it’s time to revisit and revise the two most important goals that got me to where I am. After some considerable time and effort here are my revised goals for the next five years.

Stay healthy.

Keep working for my current willing employer.

Happy Memorial Day.

Another Reason to Exercise (your brain)

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Group-based trajectory modeling identified four groups of distinct occupational cognitive demands according to the degree of routine tasks in the participants occupations during their 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s. The researchers analyzed the link between these trajectory groups and clinically diagnosed MCI and dementia in participants in the HUNT4 70+ Study (2017-19). Additionally, the researchers accounted for important dementia risk factors such as age, gender, educational level, income, overall health, and lifestyle habits from assessments made in 1984-86 and 1995-97.  Within age groupings the researchers looked at such occupations as primary school teacher, salesperson, nurse and caregiver, office cleaner, civil engineer, and mechanic, among others.

After adjusting for age, sex, and education, the group with low occupational cognitive demands (the high RTI group) had a 37 percent higher risk of dementia compared to the group with high occupational cognitive demands. Occupations That Are Cognitively Stimulating May Be Protective Against Later-life Dementia — https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/news/occupations-are-cognitively-stimulating-may-be-protective-against-later-life-dementia

Link to the study abstract – https://www.neurology.org/doi/10.1212/WNL.0000000000209353

I hope my spouse doesn’t read this or she’ll never let me retire.

Sensational yet Obvious! Time Restricted Eating Works!

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Photo by Tim Mossholder on Pexels.com

In a randomized-controlled trial, people who followed a time-restricted diet lost about the same amount of weight as people who ate the same diet without the time restriction, according to a study published Friday in Annals of Internal Medicine…nutrition experts Krista Varady and Vanessa Oddo of the University of Illinois wrote in an editorial accompanying the study. “Using a controlled feeding design, Maruthur and colleagues show that TRE is effective for weight loss, simply because it helps people eat less.” It’s cutting calories—not intermittent fasting—that drops weight — https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/04/its-cutting-calories-not-intermittent-fasting-that-drops-weight-study-suggests/

You learn something old every day.

Enough

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In the pursuit of “fine” to “great,” we chase products. Through no fault of our own, we fall prey to messaging from social media users, algorithms, and expert marketers, urging us that this shampoo or this rug will shift the scales toward enoughness. “This is how the marketplace continues to work,” says Brooke Erin Duffy, an associate professor of communication at Cornell University, “which is by amplifying our inadequacies and insecurities.”

Baked into these social platforms is a natural ecosystem for comparison. In the past, people weighed themselves against celebrities in the media and those within their immediate social circles, Duffy says. Now, we can compare ourselves to the idealized version of millions of strangers online — who may be perpetuating an aesthetic trend inspiring us to buy in order to participate.

How to be enough
Our obsession with self-improvement is making us miserable. https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/24091379/how-to-be-enough-habituation-hedonic-treadmill-comparison

How to be enough.

How to have enough.

Know when enough is enough.

You’re welcome.