To flatten the curve and mitigate the impact of coronavirus we should be practicing social distancing. It is not obvious to most how this should be accomplished but there is a great article on this at The New Yorker which discusses an information sheet on the topic provided by Dr. Asaf Bitton, The New Yorker…
via Best Practices For Social Distancing To Mitigate COVID-19 — The Skeptical Cardiologist
Thank you Anthony C. Pearson, MD, FACC.
Eighty-six percent of people in China who were infected with novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) were not tested in the two week period before travel restrictions came into force on January 23 in Wuhan and other cities. And these undetected cases contributed to the majority of virus spread in the community, says a paper published in the journal Science. The paper says that undetected cases can expose a large population to the virus than would otherwise occur. The study found undetected cases were the source of infection for 79% of documented cases.
via Coronavirus: Undetected cases drive virus spread in the community — Science Chronicle
And this is precisely why you must stay at home as much as possible in the near term future. Limit your movements, avoid crowds, use common sense.
I roll in my bed, unable to sleep. I listen to BBC talk about the craziness that took over the world, preoccupied with this one question. What question? It’s not: “Why, Corona?” For that, I already have more answers than I want. Scientists say that COVID19 is an animal virus. It spread to humans from…
I’ve been reading a lot of COVID-19 news articles. Here are a few of my favs.
In South Korea, public health officials screened about 100,000 people and detected over 7,300 cases. So far, the death toll is 50, which translates to a case-fatality rate of 0.7 percent. That’s still seven times worse than seasonal flu, but it’s far lower than the initial reports from China.
Impact of the epidemic in the U.S.
Now that new COVID-19 cases are being detected in the U.S. every day, it is too late to stop the initial wave of infections. The epidemic is likely to spread across the U.S. The virus appears to be about as contagious as influenza. But this comparison is difficult to make since we have no immunity to the new coronavirus.
How big will the coronavirus pandemic be? An epidemiologist answers.
Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, is among those arguing hospitals need to change course. “It’s just not sustainable to think that every time a health care worker is exposed they have to be quarantined for 14 days. We’d run out of health care workers,” Nuzzo said.
Self-quarantines will lead to health worker shortagesSelf-quarantines will lead to health worker shortages
“When we controlled for historical life expectancy, we found three additional community factors that each exert a significant negative effect — a greater number of fast food restaurants, higher population density, and a greater share of jobs in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction,” Dobis said. “For example, for every one percentage point increase in the number of fast food restaurants in a county, life expectancy declined by .004 years for men and .006 years for women.”
Community factors influence how long you’ll live
Journal Reference: Elizabeth A. Dobis, Heather M. Stephens, Mark Skidmore, Stephan J. Goetz. Explaining the spatial variation in American life expectancy. Social Science & Medicine, 2020; 246: 112759 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112759
Marler Clark is a law firm in Seattle Washington. Outstandingly proactive and quoted here for my readers to view.
I especially liked the generous financial contribution to the employees and the last item on the list to stock in your pantry.
Here is what I sent my staff late last week:
All, see symptoms below – if you are sick, please stay home.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html
I have asked Chris and Michelle to give me some ideas on recommendations on how to responsibly deal with this from a medical issue. We will give you all our thoughts early next week.
All, please email to Leslie all your contact information and a close contact too. Leslie, please share that with all.
All, please let me know if anyone needs any technology to work from home if necessary if this becomes a bigger problem. Think about what you might need to work from home for an extended period of time. What do you need to effectively do your job from home – computer, paper, pens, etc.? COVID-19 is not an excuse to work from home, but I want to be prepared and sensible.
Also, let’s look at travel schedules over the coming months to see if there are alternatives. Please shoot me your travel over the next 30-60 days.
All, take a hard look at your cases – what deadlines might be impacted by Court and other office closures, etc. I want us to be proactive and think ahead. I do not want deadlines missed.
Finally, not to be a “prepper,” but Kelli, please drop $2,500 (pre-tax) into everyone’s account on Monday to be used as they see fit to prepare for some disruptions. I have not thought of exactly what those needs might be, but there are probably a few websites that have suggestions.
Here are some ideas for being prepared for home:
All medications (over the counter *ibuprofen* , allergy, cold etc and prescriptions )
All household products you will need for two weeks (toilet paper, soap, paper towels, laundry detergent, cleaning supplies, etc)
Supply of water for two weeks
Food for two weeks
⁃ Chicken broth
⁃ Beans
⁃ Onions
⁃ Garlic
⁃ Potatoes – sweet, Yukon, etc
⁃ Pasta
⁃ Canned tomatoes
⁃ Steel cut oats
⁃ Peanut butter
⁃ Bread *freezer*
⁃ Eggs
⁃ Frozen meat
⁃ Canned fish
⁃ Jerky or dried meat
⁃ Dried nuts and fruit
⁃ Popcorn
⁃ Chocolate
⁃ Wine/booze of choice
Taco Bell is launching an all-vegetarian menu feature with 50 meat-free items
I’ve been following the Vegan Tsunami for some time now. See here, here, and here, 2018-The year vegan junk food went mainstream.
A few things to remember:
I haven’t eaten at a Taco Hell in years. And the availability of 50 meat free items is not going to entice me to start eating there again. If you’re eating less meat for health reasons that’s fine. But don’t pursue your meat-free lifestyle with fast food.
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
Click here to read the full NEJM Editorial.
I’m hoping the NEJM editorial gets read and shared widely. Clearly all individuals and businesses need to be prepared for the worst case scenario. If you manage a large company, go back and review/revise your disaster recovery/business continuation plans. I’d make absolutely certain your tele-commuting platform is A+ and working as well as possible. You may even consider expanding your remote work capabilities because every one of your employees might be using it. Soon.
Key points
- The highest probability of reaching 90 years of age (longevity) was found for men and women drinking 5– < 15 g alcohol/day (or 0.5–1.5 glass/day); the exposure–response relationship was significantly non-linear in women.
- Usual drinking pattern and binge drinking were not significantly associated with longevity, but the risk estimates indicate to avoid binge drinking.
- The estimated modest risk ratios (RRs) should not be used as motivation to start drinking if one does not drink alcoholic beverages.
Results
We found statistically significant positive associations between baseline alcohol intake and the probability of reaching 90 years in both men and women. Overall, the highest probability of reaching 90 was found in those consuming 5– < 15 g/d alcohol, with RR = 1.36 (95% CI, 1.20–1.55) when compared with abstainers. The exposure-response relationship was significantly non-linear in women, but not in men. Wine intake was positively associated with longevity (notably in women), whereas liquor was positively associated with longevity in men and inversely in women. Binge drinking pointed towards an inverse relationship with longevity. Alcohol intake was associated with longevity in those without and with a history of selected diseases.
Alcohol consumption in later life and reaching longevity: the Netherlands Cohort Study
What were the demographics of the forty-one admitted 2019-nCoV patients included in this study?
Most were men (30/41 patients; 73%)
Median age = 49 years
13/41 patients (32%) had underlying disease (e.g. diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, COPD, cancer)
What kind of symptoms did the forty-one admitted 2019-nCoV patients included in this study have?
Fever (40/41 patients; 98%)
Cough (31/41 patients; 76%)
Myalgia or Fatigue (18/41 patients; 44%)
These three symptoms were the major ones. There were patients who had sputum production, headache, hemoptysis, and diarrhea; however, these symptoms were less common.
Dyspnea occurred in 55% later in the course, with mean time to onset of dyspnea at 8 days.
Here’s a nice short summary of a recent study published in Lancet. The balance of the source article can be found at emDOCs.net
And if you want to maintain your sanity regarding this emerging infectious disease threat avoid social media.
Social media, for all its many ills and its few redeeming qualities, identifies idiots.
Can we turn serious for a minute? Are you on social media, talking to people that you don’t know about things that you know nothing about? If so, what are you doing? There’s a great big wonderful wide world out there. Why not trying exploring it? Talk to people. See things. Read stuff that is longer than 14 words.
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