The Myth of Retirement

Prices in the three production stages that are the furthest up the pipeline (Stages 1-3, red, green, gray) have all jumped by over 20% year-over-year. Prices at production stage 4 (black), up 12.1% year-over-year, are inputs for final demand prices, which are inputs for consumer prices.

Final demand prices are what consumer prices will encounter pretty soon in their consumer prices. Stage 4 intermediate demand prices will follow. And prices in productions stages 1-3 are further behind, but they’re true whoppers, and they will provide massive pressures on consumer prices for months to come:

Up the Price Pipeline, Inflation Rages at 20% — https://wolfstreet.com/2021/09/10/up-the-price-pipeline-inflation-rages-at-20/#comments

Prior to the 1950’s, there was no such thing as retirement, as the term is used today. A 1950 poll showed that most workers aspired to work for as long as possible. Quitting was for the disabled. Also, remember that in 1935 when the government was determining the appropriate retirement age for social security (65) the average adult male died at age 63.

The Baby Boom generation is also living longer than the generation before it. Chances are a married couple age 65 will have one spouse live into his or her early nineties. That is nearly 30 years of living off of one’s savings and Social Security if one retires at age 65. The math does not work for this many people. For so many to have golden years, there needs to be gold (money) to support them.

Trust Company Oklahoma May 2016 The Retirement Myth — https://www.trustok.com/our-latest-quarterly-newsletter/

Thinking about retirement? I’ve been thinking about retirement for quite some time and the thought of not working doesn’t appeal to me. There will come a time when the 40+ hour workweek will be no longer doable. But for now that time is far off in the future. The math in retirement will not work for the majority. I see inflation all around and my planned retirement income streams and savings will not last as long as hoped if everything costs more. Retirement math now is simple. If you can, work longer and save more.

Scary Charts From 91-DIVOC

New Confirmed Covid-19 Cases per Dayhttp://91-divoc.com/

91-DIVOC is home to many data-forward, high-quality, interactive, and informative visualizations made during the global pandemic created by Prof. Wade Fagen-Ulmschneider a Teaching Associate Professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). With a passion for data, he often teaches thousands of students each year in his courses on Data Structures, Data Visualization, and Data Science. He was selected as one of the National Academy of Engineering’s Frontiers of Engineering Education scholars, awarded the Collins Award for Innovation Teaching, and has been consistently ranked as an excellent instructor by his students for the past ten years. His work on data visualizations has been used by governors of multiple states, featured by websites including Popular Mechanics and The Verge, and has been viewed by millions of readers. [Full Curriculum Vitae, PDF]

https://waf.cs.illinois.edu/

The chart I’ve posted is a simple screenshot. Charts at http://91-divoc.com/ are fully interactive.

Aspen Market – Report July 2020 – the Great Urban Exodus

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6 Bedrooms / 7 Full Baths / 2 Half Baths / 7,489 SF
$4,299,000 — EXTREMELY well priced at $575./sq ft
Extremely well priced relative to Aspen proper.  The most recent highest Sale in Aspen was $27,000,000 or $3090/sq ft for a 7-bedroom home on Willoughby Way built in 2015.
Aspen 072020

 

The real estate market is booming! Demand has reached unprecedented levels as people escape the big cities, take advantage of record low interest rates and opt to work remotely. This was the biggest July our market has ever seen by far with 42 closings in Aspen and Snowmass, a 100% increase compared to last July, and dollar volume increased 215%. July sales for Aspen and Snowmass combined are illustrated below.

The local realtor’s email contains tons more information and data on her real estate market.  Her email was forwarded to me from my project who lives and works in the Aspen area.  If I could get $3090/sq ft for my house I’d get $11,124,000!  (minus realtor commissions).

Time to reread Jane Jacobs’ Life and Death of American Cities.

 

Scary Charts 08.08.20 – Surge In Number of Americans Moving In With Older Family Members

Screenshot_2020-08-08 Surge In Number of Americans Moving In With Older Family Members Amid Pandemic Fed Study

“The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the living arrangements of millions of Americans,” said Daniel Garcia and Andrew Paciorek, authors of the Aug. 7 study, which looks at the impact of the pandemic on living arrangements and household formation in the United States.

  Surge In Number of Americans Moving In With Older Family Members Amid Pandemic: Fed Study

 

Scary Charts 05.06.20 — Auto Loans

Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up, Get Very Messy

US-auto-loan-deliquencies-dollars-2020-q1

Delinquencies of auto loans to borrowers with prime credit ratings were near historic lows (0.27% in March), according to Fitch data. In the pre-Virus Good Times, it was the subprime loans – with credit scores below 620 – that were blowing up…

In mid-March, the world changed for subprime lenders. Delinquencies were already exploding in the Good Times, and now they’re in utter turmoil.

In addition, it is likely that prime loans are becoming delinquent as well, as many of these people too have lost their jobs – this includes dentists and other professionals with high incomes and big debts and lots of expenses and no savings, who’d suddenly had to close their operations, and their cash flow disappeared. If they fall behind on their debts, they’ll be subprime in a hurry.

 

The coronavirus pandemic in five powerful charts — CVD

Nature.com From papers published to carbon emissions to confirmed cases, these data reveal an unprecedented viral outbreak and its impacts around the world. A worker disinfects a mosque in Istanbul as part of city-wide efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19.Credit: Chris McGrath/Getty How is the coronavirus spreading around the world?

via The coronavirus pandemic in five powerful charts — CVD

This is an interesting view on the pandemic.

Spike in Death Rates in Young Adults Minnesota

Screenshot_2019-12-05 What’s behind the spike in death rates among young adults in Minnesota MinnPost

That hasn’t escaped the notice of Dan Dahl, of Dahl Funeral Home in East Grand Forks and the former president of the Minnesota Funeral Directors Association.

“The older I get, the younger everyone else gets. I’m 59, and it used to be when I was 35, 35-year-olds didn’t die, it seemed like. It kind of sticks out now the older you get,” he said. “We’re not supposed to be burying our kids, our kids are supposed to be burying us.”

Read the source article at this link.