Scary Charts

I Stopped Drinking Alcohol Every Day (bonus Scary Chart)

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Worldwide, MASLD became the most common chronic liver disease, affecting up to 38% of the adult population (11). In addition, the global prevalence of MASLD is expected to further increase during the next two decades (12). For example, in the U.S., the prevalence of MASLD is predicted to increase from 34% (86 million people) in 2020 to 41% (122 million people) by 2050 (13). MASLD is an increasingly important contributor not only to liver-related but also to extrahepatic morbidity and mortality worldwide. This observation supports that the clinical burden of MASLD clearly extends far beyond the liver, making it a multisystem disorder. While among people with MASLD <10% develop liver-related complications, the major causes of death are CVD and cancer (11,14).

Today, the highest global pooled prevalence of MASLD is found among people with obesity (75% [95% CI 71–79]) (15) and type 2 diabetes (65% [61–68]) (16). Among people with obesity (34% [28–39]) and people with diabetes (32% [17–51]) there is also a very high prevalence of the advanced form of MASLD, metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH) (15,16). Furthermore, at 37% (95% CI 26–48), the prevalence of MASLD is also very high among children and adolescents with type 2 diabetes (17). This very early onset of MASLD may have severe long-term consequences for the liver, such as higher risk for cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In addition, among adults with prediabetes prevalence of MASLD is approximately twofold higher in comparison with people with normal glucose regulation, independently of adiposity (18). The findings that overweight and hyperglycemia are tightly related to MASLD indicate that there are joint pathomechanisms promoting adiposity, hyperglycemia, and MASLD. Furthermore, hyperglycemia may promote hepatic steatosis and inflammation, and the steatotic and inflamed liver may also be involved in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. Thus, there may be a vicious cycle between increased liver fat content and insulin resistance–associated hyperglycemia promoting the progression of both diseases.

Norbert Stefan; MASLD as Complication of Diabetes. Diabetes 20 July 2026; 75 (8): 1359–1370. https://doi.org/10.2337/dbi26-0001

The US Health and Human Services (HHS) and Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued new alcohol guidelines in January 2026 “Consume less alcohol for better overall health” and I take advice from my government seriously.

Scary Charts – 10.06.26

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The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) re-spiked in recent months and in September hit 12.2%, the second highest ever, behind only January 2026 (12.3%), and 1.5 percentage point above the worst moments of the Financial Crisis, according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

Source: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 12.2%, Far Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. End of Extend-and-Pretend Looms https://wolfstreet.com/2026/10/05/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-re-spikes-to-12-2-far-worse-than-financial-crisis-peak-as-end-of-extend-and-pretend-looms/

I was thinking about how bad the US economy really is behind the curtain.

I can’t believe the number of hockey stick charts I continue to find.

Scary Charts – 09.25.26

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De La Paz has $96 deducted from her paycheck every month for her employee lodging, which covers her bed in a dorm room she shares with up to two roommates, as well as Wi-Fi and utilities. Dorm living comes with a communal bathroom, laundry facilities, common areas and social events.

Source: She pays $96 a month to live in Yellowstone National Park: ‘Being here has changed my life’ – https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/19/living-in-yellowstone-for-96-dollars-a-month.html

I was thinking about how to stretch our finances in retirement.

This creative young woman sews for a living.

My extremely significant other has a sewing machine…

Scary Charts – 09.24.26

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It’s as simple as this: as long-term interest rates continue moving higher, virtually every important piece of financial math gets worse, all at the same time.

The discount rate used to value stocks rises, which makes future earnings worth less today. Mortgages get more expensive. Corporate borrowing gets more expensive. Private equity deals and private credit…much of which is already FUBAR but not showing it yet…become harder to finance. Leveraged companies have to refinance debt at higher rates. Consumers pay more to borrow and the federal government pays more to service its enormous pile of debt.

Source: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/bonds-are-about-to-crash-the-stock?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Yikes.

Scary Pictures – 09.12.26

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Source:

The consumer price index rose 3.4% last month compared with a year ago, the Labor Department said Friday, the same as in July. But on a monthly basis, inflation quickened, as costs jumped 0.4% from July to August, up from an increase of just 0.1% the previous month. U.S. inflation accelerated last month as gas prices spiked, squeezing Americans’ finances – https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-inflation-accelerated-last-month-as-gas-prices-spiked-squeezing-americans-finances

Yikes.

Another Random Thought on Retirement – 08.29.26

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Another quiet Saturday and thoughts turn to retirement (again). Today I thought about retirement income streams and how life would look once I stopped working. We need to find someplace affordable.

In California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, retirees often need between $1.5 million and $2.2 million to maintain their lifestyles, according to a 2026 study by GoBankingRates. By contrast, Oklahoma is the most affordable state, with $735,284 the baseline for a comfortable retirement. Mississippi and Arkansas follow closely, with targets remaining under $810,000. What Is the Magic Number to Retire Comfortably? – https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/magic-number-to-retire-comfortably

OK. Check that box off the list. My thoughts then turned towards what age would be a good age to retire. My former manager wanted me to stick around for five years. The last time I saw my current manager he told me a story of his grandfather working until he was 80. You hear stories of more people working into their later years and I wondered, at what age do people really retire?

What’s the real retirement age in America? Here are 4 guesses – https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personal-finance/2026/08/29/retirement-age-in-america-social-security-medicare/91406670007/

Well, that wasn’t helpful at all. Then I entertained the thought of selling our house and downsizing.

Source: https://www.reventureconsulting.com/

Hmmm…

Guess I’ll keep working. May not be going anywhere, anytime soon.

Scary Charts – 08.16.26

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Drawing on a nationally representative survey of 1,591 U.S. adults ages 22–75, this research uncovers a five-year difference between when current retirees, on average, actually left the workforce (age 57) and when future retirees expect to retire (age 62), with half of those planning to retire anticipating they’ll need to delay even further. Future retirees are shifting away from traditional income sources like Social Security and pensions, planning instead to rely more heavily on personal savings and continued employment. Career interruptions remain a significant but underappreciated threat to retirement security, as half of U.S. adults have left the workforce for more than a year.

The entire study Bridging retirement expectation gaps New evidence and insights can be downloaded here:

https://www.tiaa.org/public/institute/publication/2026/bridging-the-gaps-in-retirement-expectations

Remember my earlier post The Fear Shared By Most (Not Just Another Random Thought on Retirement) describes the greatest fear in retirement is outliving your savings. And Economist Teresa Ghilarducci is of the opinion working longer is not a plan but an illusion.

Yikes.

Scary Charts – 08.08.26

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The class disparity in happiness is nothing new. The GSS data reveal that college-educated men were happier than their less-educated peers going back to the 1980s. And while the GSS shows somewhat steady levels of happiness from the 1980s through the 2000s, other well-being metrics suggest rising discontent in earlier decades. Mortality data, for instance, shows a steady and concerning rise in what researchers call “deaths of despair”—fatalities attributable to drug overdoses, suicide, and alcoholism. The rise in “deaths of despair” has been especially dramatic among white working-class men. Our analysis of death records and population estimates finds that the suicide rate per 100,000 white non-Hispanic men ages 25 to 44 has risen from 31 in 1992 to 54 in 2023, a shocking 71% increase over just three decades.

The entire study and more scary charts can be downloaded here:

The Roots of Working-Class Men’s Discontent

https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-roots-of-working-class-mens-discontent